Dogecoin Seen With 80% Chance of Spot ETF Approval in 2025

Generated by AI AgentCoin World
Wednesday, Jun 11, 2025 7:47 am ET1min read
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In a surprising turn for the crypto market, analysts now believe Dogecoin (DOGE), the original meme coin, has a clearer path to a spot ETF approval in the U.S. than Cardano (ADA), a leading smart contract platform. The analysis highlights the complex and often counter-intuitive nature of the U.S. regulatory landscape for digital assets.

According to new data from an analyst, the market is pricing in an 80% probability of a spot Dogecoin ETF approval in 2025, while Cardano’s odds sit slightly lower at 75%. This comes as the market turns its attention to which altcoins will follow Bitcoin and Ethereum in securing their own exchange-traded funds. When a market participant questioned whether altcoins like Solana would attract the same kind of capital inflow that Bitcoin did with its ETF launch, the analyst responded that some inflows are to be expected.

Dogecoin, once viewed as a speculative asset driven by internet culture, is now seen as being on relatively firm regulatory ground. A key factor is that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) already regulates Dogecoin futures, which adds to its credibility as a commodity, a crucial status for ETF approval. Several major asset managers, including Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares, have already filed for spot Dogecoin ETFs. The final SEC deadline for a decision on these applications is set for October 17, 2025.

While Cardano has long been positioned as a top contender in the DeFi space, its path to an ETF appears slightly more challenging. So far, only Grayscale has filed for a spot Cardano ETF. Although analysts believe the SEC is also likely to view

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as a commodity, it does not yet have a CFTC-regulated futures market, a key distinction from Dogecoin. The final SEC decision deadline for the Cardano application is October 23, 2025.

Even with approval, demand remains uncertain as investors remain heavily focused on Bitcoin over altcoins. The analyst noted, "Prob get some but hard to say how much and nothing will compare to bitcoin. We have a little saying on the team 'the further away you get from btc, the less assets there will be'."