Dogecoin's $0.10 Test: Flow Signals vs. Technical Setup

Dogecoin is testing a critical support level after a sharp drop. The price fell 16% in four days, briefly breaking down to an intraday low of $0.094. This move brought the token close to its 52-week low of $0.0805, setting up a key test for the $0.09 zone. The immediate pressure is clear, but the technical setup is now shifting.

A potential reversal signal is emerging from the Bollinger Bands. The indicator suggests the downtrend may be losing momentum, with the price action hinting at a possible breakout to reclaim the $0.10 level. This is supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moving into oversold territory, which often precedes a bounce. The bands themselves are expanding, signaling that volatility could increase in the near term.

The most specific reversal signal is the TD Sequential buy setup. After the sell-off, the indicator flashed a buy signal for DOGE, a pattern that has historically preceded significant bounces. This signal appears as the price tests the $0.09 support, suggesting a liquidity sweep cleared weak hands and positioned the market for a potential move higher.

The Flow Check: Volume and Positioning

The technical reversal signals are clear, but the flow of money tells a more cautious story. Trading volume has dried up, with the 24-hour figure at $1.93 billion, a massive 51.38% drop. This lack of conviction suggests the recent bounce is being driven by a small number of participants, not broad market participation. Without volume to confirm the move, the sustainability of any breakout above $0.10 is questionable.

On-chain data offers a more constructive view. During the sharp sell-off, holders were accumulating. Exchange net position data shows buying pressure overtook selling as the price dipped, with investors viewing the drop as an opportunity. This behavior reduces downside momentum by absorbing weak hands and can act as a floor for the price. It aligns with historical patterns where accumulation zones later precede recoveries.

Leveraged traders are positioned for a rebound. The futures market long/short ratio stands at 2.59, a bullish signal. This indicates traders are betting on a price increase if the $0.09 support zone holds. However, such positioning also creates a risk of a sharp move lower if the support breaks, as it could trigger a wave of liquidations. The flow here is a double-edged sword: it provides potential fuel for a rally but amplifies volatility.

Catalysts and Risks: The Path to $0.10

The path to reclaiming the $0.10 level is defined by clear flow and price thresholds. The immediate resistance is the $0.1014 level. A decisive break above this point is required to shift the trend from a potential bounce to a confirmed reversal. If that resistance holds, the price faces a swift return to the $0.0790 support level, which is near the critical 52-week low. The bullish targets from here are the next major resistance zones at $0.114 and $0.138.

The primary risk to the reversal thesis is a breakdown below the established support. The 52-week low of $0.0805 is the key floor. A sustained move below this level would invalidate the current bullish setup, confirming the broader downtrend has resumed. It would signal that the recent accumulation and liquidity sweep have failed to establish a durable base, likely triggering further selling pressure.

The most important flow metric to watch is volume. The recent bounce has been weak, with volume down 51.38%. For the reversal to be sustained, a move above $0.10 must be accompanied by a surge in volume. Sustained volume is the only reliable signal that institutional or large retail capital is participating, providing the conviction needed to carry the price higher. Without it, the move remains vulnerable to a quick reversal.