Dogecoin's $0.095 TD Signal: A Tactical Rebound or Trend Continuation?

Dogecoin has triggered a TD Sequential buy signal on its daily chart as the price approaches $0.095. This signal marks a potential shift in momentum, emerging after weeks of controlled selling rather than panic-driven liquidation. Yet it does not signal a trend reversal, but rather flags a potential tactical rebound within a dominant downtrend.

The asset remains trapped in a descending regression channel that has governed price action for months. This structure caps upside potential while providing clear boundaries: support holds at $0.080 and resistance sits at $0.117. Any sustainable move higher must first reclaim this key resistance level. The recent bounce reflects a reaction off structural support, not a fundamental change in market structure.

On-chain metrics point to quiet accumulation beneath the surface. Spot Taker Cumulative Volume Delta remains positive despite price weakness, showing buyers are absorbing available supply. This dynamic supports the TD signal's implication of slowing downside pressure, but not immediate bullish control.

Flow Analysis: Liquidity and Momentum Indicators

The market remains liquid, with a 24-hour trading volume of $3.22 billion. This significant flow provides the necessary depth for price moves, but it does not indicate a shift in directional bias. The volume is consistent with the asset's established range, not a breakout.

Short-term momentum shows modest, not strong, buying interest. The 4-hour Money Flow Index sits at 54.23, just above neutral. This signals some capital inflows but falls far short of the 70+ level needed to confirm aggressive accumulation. The lack of a bullish momentum surge aligns with the asset's failure to respond to recent hype from Elon Musk.

The trend structure remains firmly bearish. The 50-day moving average at $0.10 is below the 200-day MA at $0.20, confirming a "death cross" pattern. Any bounce from the TD signal must first overcome this bearish moving average alignment, which acts as a key resistance level. Until that happens, the flow is supporting a range-bound, not a trend-reversing, move.

Catalysts and Risks: What Could Break the Range?

The primary catalyst for a meaningful move is a confirmed break above key resistance. A decisive move above $0.117 would attract buyers and signal a potential trend continuation. This level has repeatedly rejected recovery attempts since November, so breaking it would invalidate the descending channel's bearish structure and likely trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders and follow-through buying. The next major target would be $0.153, aligning with the channel's upper boundary.

The flip side is a rapid breakdown below support. A decisive break below the $0.080 zone would trigger leverage-driven selling. This level is critical defense, having stalled previous selloffs. Once breached, it removes the primary floor, likely leading to a swift test of the 52-week low near $0.080549. The muted reaction to recent hype, like Elon Musk's comments, shows sentiment-driven catalysts alone cannot shift the prevailing trend. The market's failure to rally on such news confirms that flow is still dominated by technical structure, not narrative.

The bottom line is that flow will follow price, not the other way around. Until a break occurs, the range-bound action will persist. Traders must watch for volume spikes on moves toward either $0.080 or $0.117, as those would signal the start of a new directional flow. For now, the setup is one of containment, where any breakout will be a function of price action, not external hype.