DOGE Holds Oversold RSI But Bearish Divergence Deepens

On JAN 31 2026, DOGE rose by 0.87% within 24 hours to reach $0.10513, despite a 14.05% drop over the past 7 days, a 9.19% decline in the last month, and a 10.47% loss over the past year. Price remains below key trend indicators, but momentum signals suggest the bearish move may be nearing a turning point.

Oversold RSI and Bearish Divergence

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for DOGE stands at 26.76, well below the 30 level that typically indicates oversold conditions. This level historically has a 60% probability of triggering a 5-10% pullback. However, recent price action has shown no bullish divergence, with both price and RSI forming lower lows. This suggests that bearish momentum remains intact despite the technical oversold condition.

Analysts project that while the RSI remains below 30, the likelihood of short-term buying pressure increases. If RSI breaks above 30, the next target could be $0.1077, a key resistance level. Conversely, a drop below 20 would likely accelerate the bearish trend and test the $0.0947 support level.

MACD Histogram Narrows, Suggesting Trend Exhaustion

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator currently resides in negative territory, with the histogram showing a narrowing tendency. While the indicator remains bearish, the shrinking histogram bars suggest that the selling momentum is weakening. This dynamic is a key signal of a potential trend reversal, particularly if the MACD line approaches zero.

Historical data shows that similar MACD patterns—where histogram expansions are followed by a contraction—have led to 8-15% pullbacks. If the narrowing continues, the $0.1077 resistance level becomes a critical point to watch for a potential momentum shift.

EMA Compression Reflects Weakening Downtrend

Price remains below the EMA20 at $0.12, maintaining the short-term bearish bias. The compression between EMA10 and EMA20 further indicates reduced trend strength. The EMA50 at $0.11 and EMA200 at $0.14 provide medium-term support, but if price falls below EMA50, the downtrend could gain further strength, with $0.0947 becoming the next key support.

The flat trajectory of the longer-term EMA lines also suggests the downtrend is maturing. In such scenarios, consolidation or range trading becomes more likely than continued directional movement.

Key Support and Resistance Levels Identified

Multi-timeframe analysis has identified eight strong levels across daily, three-day, and weekly charts. The $0.0947 support (score 74/100) and $0.1077 resistance (score 64/100) are key confluence points. Volume data confirms that selling pressure was dominant during the recent decline, but the recent slowdown in trading volume suggests that buyers may be stepping in.

These levels are being closely monitored by traders for signs of a potential reversal or continuation of the bearish trend.

Correlation with Bitcoin Affects Momentum

DOGE maintains a high correlation with Bitcoin (0.85+), and the recent 7.25% drop in BTC to $78,262 has amplified selling pressure across altcoins. If BTC breaks below $75,720, DOGE’s $0.0947 support is likely to be tested. Conversely, a move above $79,044 could open the path for a rebound toward $0.1484.

The Supertrend indicator remains bearish for both BTC and DOGE, with BTC’s main support at $75,720 and DOGE’s at $0.0947. Until Bitcoin shows signs of stability or strength, DOGE’s recovery is likely to remain constrained.

Momentum Outlook and Market Expectations

In the near term, momentum indicators suggest a trend in exhaustion. While the bearish bias remains, the RSI’s oversold condition, MACD histogram narrowing, and EMA ribbon compression all point to a potential pause or correction. Volume confirms the strength of the recent selling wave, but the recent slowdown offers a potential floor.

Traders are watching for a potential bounce around $0.0947, with $0.1077 and $0.1484 as bullish targets. On the downside, $0.0470 remains a long-term bearish projection. The overall market environment remains volatile, and while the indicators suggest weakening momentum, a shift in sentiment could alter the trajectory.