DOGE +6.14% as Bitwise Files ETF Filing Amid Bearish On-Chain Activity

On NOV 7 2025, DOGE rose by 6.14% within 24 hours to reach $0.16965. Despite this 24-hour gain, the token continues to decline in the broader timeframe, with a 7-day drop of 7.93%, a 1-month drop of 7.96%, and a 1-year drop of 45.7%. The mixed on-chain activity and regulatory developments are shaping investor sentiment.

ETF Filing Marks Key Step for DOGE’s Institutional Adoption

Bitwise Asset Management has taken a significant regulatory step by filing an 8(a) form for its Spot Dogecoin ETF. This procedural filing activates a 20-day SEC review window, during which the ETF will be automatically approved for listing unless the SEC intervenes. The move signals Bitwise’s intent to rapidly advance the DOGE ETF’s launch. According to Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas, the 8(a) filing is a clear indicator of the firm’s urgency and confidence in the product’s prospects.

This filing follows in the footsteps of recent Ethereum and Solana ETFs and reflects growing institutional interest in meme-based assets. The ETF structure, which includes in-kind creation and redemption features, is expected to attract institutional capital by improving tax efficiency and reducing compliance barriers. This shift could fundamentally change DOGE’s market dynamics and broaden its appeal to a new class of investors.

On-Chain Activity Suggests Ongoing Distribution and Caution

Despite the regulatory optimism, DOGE’s price action has remained bearish in the near term. Whale activity has intensified, with over 1 billion DOGE tokens—worth approximately $440 million—moved in the past 72 hours. This distribution aligns with one of the heaviest outflows since early October and raises concerns about short-term selling pressure.

On-chain data also reveals a breakdown-and-retest pattern in recent trading sessions. DOGE fell 2.4% to $0.1634 in the 24-hour period, breaking below key support levels. Volume surged during the session, particularly at 15:00 GMT, when the token hit an intraday low of $0.1590. While late trading showed some stabilization, the price remains under pressure, with resistance persisting near $0.1639.

Technicals Signal Consolidation and Potential for Reversal

Technical indicators remain mixed, with RSI recovering from oversold territory and MACD showing signs of flattening. These readings suggest a potential slowdown in the downward momentum. However, speculative interest remains muted, as evidenced by declining futures open interest and negative funding rates on major exchanges like Binance.

The volume profile supports a transition phase, with heavy distribution in the session’s early hours followed by modest accumulation later. This pattern often precedes a consolidation phase before a decisive breakout. While the immediate outlook remains bearish, a confirmed reversal above key resistance levels could trigger a bullish rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current technical setup and price behavior, a backtesting hypothesis can be constructed to evaluate the effectiveness of a potential buy signal based on DOGE’s price pattern. The hypothesis would involve identifying key resistance and support levels, monitoring volume shifts, and assessing price retests.

A possible backtesting strategy could focus on measuring the performance of trades triggered when DOGE’s price retests the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle pattern, as observed on the weekly chart. A buy signal would be generated at this level, with a target of $0.35 if the price breaks above the upper trendline.

This strategy would integrate key technical indicators such as RSI, MACD, and volume profiles to filter false signals and confirm breakout validity. The holding period would be defined by a fixed window of 20 days after the trigger event, or until the price falls back below the resistance level, whichever occurs first.

The backtest would run from January 1, 2022, to the present, allowing for a comprehensive evaluation of the strategy’s historical viability. The results could provide insights into whether the current setup is a high-probability bullish pattern or if additional conditions need to be met for a successful trade.