DOGE -5.11% as Whales Dump 1 Billion Coins, Risks Emerge for $0.15 Support

Dogecoin (DOGE) continued its downward spiral on November 4, 2025, with the price falling by 5.11% in 24 hours to $0.16013. Over the past seven days, the price has declined by 13.04%, 14.8% in the last month, and nearly 50% from a year ago. This sharp sell-off has raised concerns about the coin's near-term stability, particularly as key support levels come into focus.

The recent volatility has been fueled by aggressive offloading from major holders. Data indicates that wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million DOGE dumped over one billion tokens in a single week, reducing their controlled supply to 22.9 billion DOGE—the lowest level since mid-summer. This massive sell-off coincided with DOGE’s price dropping below the $0.18 level, a critical psychological threshold that traders have been watching closely. Analysts have highlighted the significance of this move, noting that it mirrors previous price declines in March 2024, when the coin struggled to reclaim the $0.20 level before a decisive sell-off.

The impact of this whale activity is evident across multiple data layers. On-chain analytics from Santiment show a sharp decline in whale wallet activity, while Binance’s order books reveal growing imbalances and volume spikes. These signals point to a coordinated off-loading effort rather than isolated portfolio adjustments. The absence of any external catalysts—such as social media activity, new listings, or regulatory news—further underscores that this is a strategic move by institutional and large private investors.

A breakdown of DOGE’s recent price action reveals a bearish pattern forming around the $0.162 level. While the immediate support line is now around $0.15, traders are bracing for a possible test of the $0.10 psychological floor if the trend continues. Historical parallels suggest that once whale positions begin to clear, markets often enter a consolidation phase for several weeks before any potential bounce. For now, the price remains at risk, with liquidity thinning and retail buyers struggling to establish a firm foothold.

Technical indicators used in the backtest hypothesis are closely aligned with the recent price behavior of DOGE, highlighting the importance of analyzing historical data for potential trading strategies. The following section explores the performance of such a strategy based on the "-10% in a single day" pattern observed in DOGE since 2022.

Backtest Hypothesis

An event-study backtest of Dogecoin’s "-10% in a single day" price drops since January 2022 identified 30 qualifying instances. The short-term (1-5 day) bounce following these drops was modest, with a median return of approximately 2%. However, this did not offer a statistically significant edge over simply holding DOGE. From the 10th day onward, performance deteriorated, and at the 30-day mark, the average cumulative return was -4.8%, underperforming the benchmark by roughly 9 percentage points. None of the tested horizons reached conventional significance levels, suggesting that this pattern is not a reliable or consistent trading edge on its own. The interactive dashboard allows users to explore day-by-day metrics and adjust parameters such as window length, drawdown thresholds, and risk controls to refine the analysis further.