DOGE -17.04% in 1 Month Amid Consolidation and Bearish EMA Structure

On DEC 26 2025, DOGE dropped by 2.05% within 24 hours to reach $0.12078, marking a 7.63% decline within 7 days and a 17.04% drop over 1 month. The 1-year performance was particularly severe, with a 61.67% decrease. The coin has been in a protracted downward trend, unwinding much of the speculative momentum it built earlier in the year. Despite the continued downtrend, recent price behavior suggests a shift from aggressive selling to a more cautious market dynamic.

Bearish EMA Configuration Maintains Downtrend Bias

Dogecoin remains well below key moving averages on the daily chart, confirming the ongoing corrective phase. The 20-day EMA at $0.133 has repeatedly acted as overhead resistance, preventing sustained rebounds. The 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $0.148 and $0.169, respectively, add to the bearish tilt, while the 200-day EMA near $0.187 highlights the depth of the price retracement from earlier cycle highs.

Although the broader trend remains intact, DOGE has held above the $0.123–$0.125 range, an area that has historically absorbed multiple downside tests without triggering follow-through selling. This behavior is more indicative of seller exhaustion than renewed distribution, suggesting the bears are losing urgency in their efforts to drive the price lower.

RSI Suggests Stabilization Rather Than Reversal

The daily RSI indicator is currently in the high-30s to low-40s range, a neutral zone typically associated with consolidation rather than a continuation of a strong trend. While there is no bullish divergence at this stage, the lack of further RSI deterioration signals that selling pressure has diminished. This is a common precursor to range-bound trading after an extended decline and does not, at this point, suggest a reversal of the broader bearish trend.

Short-Term Technicals Show Tactical Strength

On lower-time frames, DOGE has shown improvement. The 30-minute chart indicates that the Supertrend indicator has flipped to positive, and Parabolic SAR dots have moved beneath price, confirming near-term stabilization. Intraday pullbacks have been shallow, suggesting that short-term buyers are stepping in at lower levels, but this strength remains reactive rather than directional.

Despite these tactical improvements, DOGE is still operating within a larger downtrend channel. Price has not yet formed a sustained sequence of higher highs, and attempts to break out are met with quick stalls. This suggests that while short-term demand is active, the broader bearish structure remains intact.

Flow Data Reflects Continued Cautious Sentiment

Spot flow data continues to show net outflows, indicating a lack of accumulation from large holders. Recent flows have been modest, which explains the gradual stabilization rather than a sharp rebound. Derivatives positioning also remains weak, with open interest declining despite increased trading volume. This dynamic is typical of a late-stage correction, where leverage is being reduced rather than added, and long liquidations continue to outweigh short-side activity.

Market Awaits Catalyst for Next Move

The current phase for Dogecoin appears to be one of consolidation and digestion of prior excess rather than the beginning of a new impulsive move. Key support remains the $0.123–$0.125 area, with the 20-day EMA at $0.133 serving as the next critical resistance level. A sustained move above this level, supported by stronger spot flows and reduced long-side leverage, would signal that the corrective phase is nearing completion.

Until such a move is confirmed, DOGE remains in a repair phase, quietly stabilizing rather than rebounding aggressively. The market is waiting for a clear catalyst—be it regulatory, macroeconomic, or sentiment-driven—to define the next directional move.