DOGE -15.12% in 1 Month Amid Trump Tariff Promises Unfulfilled

On NOV 17 2025, DOGE dropped by 0.21% within 24 hours to reach $0.15889, DOGE dropped by 7.01% within 7 days, dropped by 15.12% within 1 month, and dropped by 49.92% within 1 year. The decline reflects a broader pattern of declining sentiment toward the token, as recent political developments have cast doubt on potential policy-driven economic boosts.

Political uncertainty has continued to weigh on investor sentiment, particularly with respect to the unfulfilled promises of "dividend" payments tied to President Donald Trump’s economic agenda. Trump has long promoted the idea of returning savings from his economic policies—such as the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and tariffs—as financial benefits to American citizens. However, these promises have yet to materialize, with Trump’s own AI chatbot from Truth Social acknowledging the lack of actual distributions. This has led to skepticism regarding the long-term viability of such narratives as catalysts for market optimism.

Trump’s proposed "tariff dividend" of at least $2,000 per person, which he floated in a recent Truth Social post, has similarly failed to gain traction. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified that such payments would require legislative approval, and it remains unclear whether the administration has the support or legal standing to enact them. Trump’s assertions have been met with pushback from both political opponents and legal experts, as the Supreme Court has signaled its skepticism of the administration’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

The recent performance of DOGE has not shown any signs of a near-term reversal. Technical indicators suggest that the token remains in a bearish phase, with price levels below both short- and long-term moving averages. The lack of a clear catalyst—whether from Trump’s policy proposals or broader macroeconomic data—has left investors in a state of cautious wait-and-see. This uncertainty has also influenced the broader market, with DOGE failing to capitalize on recent bullish trends in the digital asset sector.

Backtest Hypothesis

In evaluating DOGE’s recent performance, a backtest could be constructed to test the effectiveness of a hypothetical trading strategy based on the technical indicators mentioned. A meaningful event-study back-test would need to define a clear event trigger—such as a 10% drawdown over the past 12 months—and a defined holding period, for example, the next 60 trading days. The aim would be to assess whether the market typically reacts positively or negatively to such an event. Given DOGE’s recent behavior, this kind of analysis would provide a data-driven perspective on whether the token has historically rebounded from similar levels or continued to trend lower.