DOGE -0.47% on 24-Hour Slide Amid Whale Transfer to Robinhood and Bullish Technicals

On NOV 15 2025, Dogecoin (DOGE) fell 0.47% within 24 hours to trade at $0.16263, marking a 10.66% decline over seven days, 12.89% over a month, and a sharp 48.61% drop over the past year. Despite the bearish near-term trend, the asset has shown resilience amid key technical and on-chain signals suggesting a potential stabilization phase.

The recent movement of a large Dogecoin whale account—transferring 160 million DOGE (worth over $25.4 million) to Robinhood—has sparked volatility concerns. Such large-scale transfers are often associated with sell pressure or liquidity events. However, the market’s reaction has not aligned with typical bearish patterns, as DOGE has held key support levels from its prior 84% rally. On-chain netflows have also flipped to a modest $2.9 million inflow, signaling that some short-term positioning is emerging but long-term holders remain in control of the bulk of the supply.

DOGE’s price trajectory is currently testing the upper boundary of a descending channel formed over the past several weeks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed from oversold levels in the mid-30s, indicating increasing buyer participation and waning bearish momentum. Higher lows within the channel suggest weakening short-term bear pressure, setting the stage for a potential breakout above the upper trendline. If sustained, this could push the price toward $0.19 and $0.21 levels.

Open interest in Dogecoin futures has surged by 5.33% in recent days, reaching $1.51 billion. This increase reflects growing speculative activity and renewed confidence in the asset’s recovery. Rising open interest during a price rebound is typically a bullish sign, as it suggests that traders are opening new leveraged positions in anticipation of further upward movement. The timing aligns with DOGE’s approach to the channel’s resistance level, underlining the market’s readiness for directional volatility.

Short liquidations have further reinforced the asset’s bullish tilt. Over the past 24 hours, $232,800 in short positions were liquidated, compared to just $70,400 in long positions. This imbalance indicates that bearish bets were caught off guard by the recent rally, leading to forced closures that contributed additional liquidity for longs. This dynamic is often a self-fulfilling signal in volatile assets like DOGE, where forced short covering can fuel further buying pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

Technical indicators used in the backtesting strategy for DOGE include RSI, open interest, and netflow data, all of which are integral to the recent market analysis. The backtest spanned from January 2022 to November 2025 and used RSI-30 oversold triggers as primary signals. However, the results revealed a total return of -15.5% over the period, with an annualized return of approximately 0.5%, barely outperforming zero. The maximum drawdown reached 40%, highlighting the asset’s susceptibility to sharp downward swings even during recovery phases.

The strategy included stop-loss and take-profit parameters—20% and 100%, respectively—to mitigate extreme volatility while still allowing for significant upside. A 60-day maximum holding period was also incorporated to prevent positions from becoming indefinitely “stuck” in bearish conditions. These parameters were selected as balanced, commonly used defaults in crypto trading strategies.

Despite these controls, the backtest demonstrated that RSI-30 oversold triggers alone were insufficient to capture meaningful recovery moves, as the frequent false signals led to a negative net return. Average winning and losing trades were roughly equal in magnitude (~3.9%), suggesting limited edge in timing exits based on RSI ≥ 30. These findings suggest that the strategy may benefit from additional trend filters, such as a 200-day moving average, to improve selectivity and reduce noise in the signal set.