DOGE's $0.245 Lifeline: Up to $0.27 or Down to $0.20?

DOGE Eyes Rally as Key Trendline Support Holds Near $0.245 Level

Recent market analysis suggests Dogecoin (DOGE) is poised for a potential rebound as it hovers near critical support levels. An AI-driven projection from ChatGPT’s model for October 1, 2025, estimates a trading range of $0.245 to $0.265, with a base case of $0.255. This outlook aligns with technical indicators showing DOGE’s price consolidating just above a key support zone near $0.245. The cryptocurrency has maintained this level despite broader market volatility, with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.2348 acting as a near-term floor.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for DOGE currently stands at 45.46, indicating weakening momentum but not yet entering oversold territory. Historical price patterns suggest that a sustained close above $0.25 could trigger a retest of resistance at $0.2737, while a breakdown below $0.2312 might push the price toward $0.21–$0.20. Institutional activity, including the launch of the Rex-Osprey Doge ETF, is being cited as a potential catalyst for renewed buying interest. Analysts note that such products could provide fresh capital inflows, particularly if macroeconomic conditions stabilize.

Market-wide pressures have weighed on DOGE in recent weeks. Over $1.7 billion in liquidations across crypto markets—including significant long positions on Bitcoin and XRP—have contributed to a broader sell-off. DOGE has lost nearly 10% in a single session, trading at $0.239 as of September 22. However, the memecoin’s price action has shown resilience, with volume spikes suggesting accumulation at lower levels. For instance, a 4.7% rebound from an intraday low of $0.164 to $0.171 on June 19 demonstrated short-term buyer interest, though this remains overshadowed by the larger bearish trend.

The broader crypto market context is mixed. While DOGE’s 200-day SMA continues to trend upward at $0.1999, reinforcing a long-term bullish foundation, the CMC Altcoin Season Index has dropped to 62/100 from 78, signaling potential challenges for altcoins. Regulatory developments, including the U.S. Federal Reserve’s restrictive monetary policy and pending ETF approvals, are expected to play pivotal roles in shaping DOGE’s near-term trajectory.

Looking ahead, the critical technical level at $0.245 will be a focal point for traders. A decisive breakout above this zone could open the path to $0.27, while a failure to hold it might prolong the downward correction. Analysts caution that DOGE’s performance will remain intertwined with macroeconomic factors and institutional adoption, particularly as the Rex-Osprey ETF’s impact becomes clearer.