DOGE -0.04% as Ascending Channel Forms, Backtest Hypothesis Explored

On NOV 10 2025, DOGE dropped by 0.04% within 24 hours to reach $0.17915, DOGE rose by 7.2% within 7 days, dropped by 3.87% within 1 month, and dropped by 43.28% within 1 year. The price has demonstrated a mixed short- and medium-term trend, with a recent consolidation phase forming a potential ascending channel. Technical indicators suggest renewed momentum may be in the works, as the structure of the price action points to a possible breakout.

The price of DOGE has shown a distinct formation of higher lows at $0.1745, $0.1761, and $0.1782, defining an ascending channel that supports a bullish outlook if the trend continues. The asset is currently trading above both its 20- and 50-hour moving averages, reinforcing the idea that near-term momentum remains intact. This positioning is often seen as a precursor to a breakout, where a sustained move above a key resistance level could trigger a broader uptrend.

Momentum indicators further support the potential for continued upward movement. The RSI has been trending higher, reaching a level near 61, indicating that buying pressure is gaining strength. Meanwhile, the MACD has crossed into positive territory, a classic sign that the upward bias in the market is strengthening. These technical signals, when taken together, suggest that the current bullish momentum may not be a temporary surge but part of a broader trend.

Crucial to the continuation of this trend is the behavior of the price around the $0.1800–$0.1804 support zone. Traders and analysts are closely monitoring this area, as a successful defense of these levels could confirm the formation of a sustainable uptrend. A confirmed daily close above $0.1838 resistance could open the path toward $0.1860–$0.1900, a range that has been historically significant in past DOGE rallies.

Conversely, failure to maintain the current levels risks a pullback toward $0.1740–$0.1750, though signs of institutional accumulation suggest that dips may continue to attract buyers. This dynamic underscores the mixed sentiment in the market: while retail traders may be cautious, institutional participants appear to be positioning for longer-term gains.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for DOGE involves analyzing the MACD Golden-Cross as a buy signal. The MACD, or Moving Average Convergence Divergence, is a widely used momentum indicator that captures trend direction and strength. A Golden-Cross occurs when the MACD line crosses above the signal line, typically interpreted as a bullish signal.

However, initial attempts to retrieve DOGE’s MACD data using the ticker “DOGEUSD.UDC” resulted in an internal error. This suggests the platform may not recognize that exact symbol. To move forward, one of the following alternatives must be used: 1. DOGEUSD (spot price in USD), 2. DOGEUSDT (Binance-traded pair), or a different symbol known to work with the data source.

Once the correct ticker is confirmed, the backtest can be executed over a defined time period—ideally from 2022-01-01 to the present—to determine whether the MACD Golden-Cross has historically been a reliable entry point for long positions in DOGE. This would involve evaluating the frequency of successful trades, the average holding period, and the overall profitability of the strategy. Given the current technical setup, a successful backtest could provide further justification for maintaining a bullish stance on DOGE.