DLocal (DLO) Surges 32% on Earnings Beat and Strategic Expansion – Is This the New Normal?

Summary
• DLocal’s stock rockets 32.08% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $15.74
• Q2 2025 results show 53% TPV growth, $256M revenue, and $70M adjusted EBITDA
• New licenses in UAE, Turkey, and Philippines expand global footprint

DLocal (DLO) is experiencing a historic intraday rally, surging 32.08% to $15.44 as of 7:25 PM ET. The stock’s explosive move follows a blockbuster Q2 earnings report, with Total Payment Volume (TPV) surging 53% YoY to $9.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA climbing 64%. The rally reflects investor enthusiasm for the fintech’s strategic expansion and operational resilience amid macroeconomic headwinds.

Earnings Beat and Strategic Expansion Drive DLocal's Surge
DLocal’s 32% intraday surge is fueled by a combination of record-breaking financials and strategic momentum. The company reported Q2 TPV of $9.2 billion (53% YoY), revenue of $256 million (50% YoY), and adjusted EBITDA of $70 million (64% YoY), all exceeding analyst expectations. Strategic initiatives, including new licenses in UAE, Turkey, and the Philippines, and product launches like SmartPix in Brazil, underscore its global expansion. Despite challenges like Argentina’s peso devaluation and Egypt’s partial volume loss, the company’s 71% EBITDA-to-gross profit margin highlights operational efficiency. Analysts at HSBC and Citigroup have upgraded the stock, citing its diversified growth and margin resilience.

Payment Services Sector Gains Momentum as DLocal Leads
The Payment Services sector is witnessing renewed vigor, with DLocal outpacing peers like PayPal (PYPL), which fell 1.93% intraday. DLocal’s 53% TPV growth and 64% adjusted EBITDA surge contrast sharply with PayPal’s modest performance, reflecting its focus on emerging markets and AI-driven automation. Sector-wide, companies like Block and Klarna are also expanding into crypto and BNPL, but DLocal’s geographic diversification and margin discipline position it as a standout. The sector’s broader tailwinds include regulatory shifts in stablecoins and cross-border payment innovations, though macro risks like currency volatility persist.

Options and Technicals Signal High Conviction in DLocal's Momentum
• MACD: 0.035 (bullish), RSI: 62.25 (neutral), 200D MA: $10.59 (well above)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $15.44 vs. upper band $11.52 (overextended)
• K-line pattern: Short-term bullish trend, long-term ranging

DLocal’s technicals suggest a continuation of its short-term bullish momentum, with key resistance at the 52-week high of $15.74 and support near the 200D MA. The stock’s 30.13% turnover rate and 32.08% intraday gain indicate strong liquidity and conviction. For options, two contracts stand out:

• DLO20250919C15 (Call, $15 strike, 9/19 expiry):
- IV: 55.56% (moderate), Leverage: 11.88%, Delta: 0.596, Theta: -0.0123, Gamma: 0.1409, Turnover: $209,771
- High gamma and moderate IV make this ideal for a 5% upside scenario (target $16.21), with potential payoff of $1.21/share.
• DLO20251017C15.47 (Call, $15.47 strike, 10/17 expiry):
- IV: 55.00% (moderate), Leverage: 11.03%, Delta: 0.538, Theta: -0.0097, Gamma: 0.1098, Turnover: $907,915
- High liquidity and leverage ratio position this for a longer-term hold, with a 5% upside target of $16.21 and payoff of $0.74/share.

Aggressive bulls should prioritize DLO20250919C15 for a short-term pop above $15.74, while DLO20251017C15.47 offers a balanced play for sustained momentum. Watch for a breakdown below $13.22 (intraday low) to trigger a reversal.

Backtest DLocal Stock Performance
The backtest of DLO's performance after a 32% intraday surge shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a positive surge, the subsequent 3-day, 10-day, and 30-day win rates were not as favorable, indicating potential downside risk following the initial increase.

DLocal's Momentum Unlikely to Slow – Position for the Next Leg Higher
DLocal’s 32% surge is a masterclass in execution, driven by record TPV, margin resilience, and strategic expansion. With HSBC’s $15 price target and a 71% EBITDA-to-gross profit margin, the stock is positioned to outperform in a sector grappling with regulatory and macro risks. Investors should monitor the 52-week high of $15.74 and the 200D MA at $10.59 as critical levels. Meanwhile, PayPal (PYPL)’s -1.93% intraday decline highlights DLocal’s superior momentum. For those seeking leverage, the DLO20250919C15 option offers a high-conviction play. Watch for a sustained close above $15.74 to confirm a new bullish phase.