DJT Flow Analysis: $105M Short, 60% Volume Concentration, and a 52-Week Drop

Trump Media accused Jane Street, Citadel, and others of naked short selling in a 2024 letter to Congress, citing their role in over 60% of DJT's volume. The company also pointed to DJT's appearance on Nasdaq's failure-to-deliver list as evidence. No regulators have formally charged any firm, but the claims resurfaced recently as Jane Street faces fresh legal troubles.

The market's reaction tells the real story. DJT's 20-day price change is -20.9%. That sharp decline shows traders are focused on fundamentals and broader market forces, not unsubstantiated allegations. The stock is down 52% from its 52-week high, a move driven by volume and price action, not regulatory drama.

The bottom line is that while the accusations create noise, they haven't moved the needle on the flow. The stock's sustained downtrend and concentration of volume remain the dominant narratives for investors.

Short Interest & Liquidity: The Real Numbers

The most concrete short interest data shows a hedge fund disclosed a roughly $105 million short position earlier this month. This prompted Trump Media to request an SEC investigation, highlighting the focus on this specific flow. The stock's liquidity metrics, however, indicate moderate activity. It has a turnover rate of 1.78% and volatility of 4.83%, suggesting steady but not frenzied trading.

This flow is set against a backdrop of persistent price pressure. DJT's price is down 35.8% over 120 days, a clear downtrend that has outpaced the recent 20-day drop. The fundamental pressure is reflected in its valuation, with the stock trading at a negative P/E. This combination of a notable short position and a deteriorating fundamental picture defines the current investment setup.

The bottom line is that the $105M short is a specific, reported flow, but the broader narrative is one of sustained selling pressure. The stock's negative earnings multiple and steep 120-day decline show that the market is pricing in ongoing challenges, making the short position a symptom of deeper issues rather than the sole cause.

Catalysts & What to Watch

The immediate flow catalysts are regulatory. Watch for any update on Trump Media's request for an SEC investigation into the Qube Research short position. Also monitor for new short interest filings, which would signal if the reported $105 million position is being added to or reduced. These are the only formal flow events that could materially shift sentiment.

A key operational metric to track is DJT's failure-to-deliver status on Nasdaq. The stock's appearance on this list was central to the naked short selling allegations. Its removal or continued presence would provide a concrete data point on the alleged manipulation, moving the narrative from accusation to observable flow.

The valuation pressure is extreme and non-negotiable. With a PS TTM of 805, the market is pricing in near-perfect, sustained growth. Any sustained revenue expansion or margin improvement is required to justify the price. For now, the stock's 52-week drop and negative earnings multiple show the market is pricing in continued challenges, making this valuation a major overhang.