DigitalBridge Group Surges 9.77% on $4B SoftBank Acquisition Deal – What’s Next for the AI-Driven Infrastructure Play?

Summary
• SoftBank Group to acquire DigitalBridge for $4 billion in a cash deal, offering $16/share (15% premium to Dec 26 close).
• DBRG surges 9.77% to $15.28, trading near 52-week high of $15.55 amid takeover speculation.
• Transaction expected to close in H2 2026, pending regulatory approvals and shareholder votes.

Today’s explosive move in DigitalBridge Group (DBRG) has sent shockwaves through the digital infrastructure sector. The stock’s 9.77% surge—driven by SoftBank’s $4 billion acquisition offer—has positioned it as a focal point for investors eyeing AI-driven infrastructure plays. With the deal offering a 50% premium to the 52-week average and a $16/share cash price, the market is recalibrating its expectations for DBRG’s role in the AI arms race. The stock’s intraday range of $15.25–$15.32 underscores the urgency of the buyout premium, while technical indicators hint at a potential breakout.

SoftBank’s $4B Cash Offer Ignites Short-Term Bullish Momentum
DigitalBridge’s 9.77% intraday surge is directly attributable to SoftBank Group’s $4 billion cash acquisition offer, announced on December 29, 2025. The deal, offering $16/share (a 15% premium to DBRG’s Dec 26 close of $13.92), has created immediate value for shareholders and triggered a price reaction. The acquisition aligns with SoftBank’s AI infrastructure ambitions, positioning DigitalBridge’s $108 billion digital infrastructure portfolio as a strategic asset for next-generation AI deployment. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high ($15.55) and the 30.17% turnover rate (relative to its float) suggest strong institutional participation and short-term speculative fervor.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Volatility in a Takeover Premium Scenario
• Technical Indicators: 52W High: $15.55 (near-term resistance), 52W Low: $6.41 (long-term support).
• MACD: 0.670 (bullish divergence), RSI: 47.95 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: Upper $16.93 (key resistance).
• Moving Averages: 30D ($11.73), 100D ($11.69), 200D ($10.76) all below current price, confirming bullish momentum.

Top Options Picks:
• DBRG20260102C13: Call option with strike $13, expiring Jan 2, 2026. Key stats: Delta 0.9057 (high sensitivity), IV 110.34% (elevated volatility), Leverage Ratio 6.79% (moderate), Theta -0.120359 (rapid time decay), Gamma 0.085221 (high sensitivity to price swings), Turnover 1,847 (liquid).
• DBRG20260102P13: Put option with strike $13, expiring Jan 2, 2026. Key stats: Delta -0.055567 (moderate bearish bias), IV 89.54% (reasonable volatility), Leverage Ratio 1,527% (high), Theta -0.011067 (slow decay), Gamma 0.070076 (moderate sensitivity), Turnover 130 (liquid).

Rationale: The call option (C13) is ideal for aggressive bulls capitalizing on the $16/share buyout premium, leveraging high delta and gamma to amplify gains if the stock breaks above $13. The put option (P13) offers downside protection if regulatory delays or shareholder resistance trigger a pullback. Both contracts benefit from elevated implied volatility, reflecting market uncertainty around the deal’s closing timeline. A 5% upside scenario (targeting $16.04) would yield a call payoff of $3.04/share, while a 5% downside (to $14.52) would net $0.48/share on the put. Traders should monitor the $15.55 52-week high as a critical breakout level.

Backtest DigitalBridge Group Stock Performance
The backtest of DBRG's performance after a 10% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows mixed results. While the 3-Day and 10-Day win rates are relatively high at 48.13% and 50.11%, respectively, the 30-Day win rate drops to 46.59%. Additionally, the maximum return during the backtest period is only 0.08%, indicating that even though there are frequent short-term gains, the overall performance is lackluster.

Positioning for the AI Infrastructure Megatrend: Buy the Rumor, Sell the News?
DigitalBridge’s 9.77% surge underscores the market’s conviction in SoftBank’s AI infrastructure vision, but the stock’s proximity to its 52-week high ($15.55) demands caution. While the $16/share buyout premium creates a clear ceiling, technical indicators suggest the stock could test this level in the near term. Investors should watch for a breakout above $15.55 to confirm sustained momentum or a pullback to the 200D MA ($10.76) as a potential entry point. In the broader sector, Equinix (EQIX) remains the benchmark with a 0.4467% intraday gain, but DBRG’s takeover premium narrative offers a unique catalyst. For now, the key takeaway is to balance optimism with prudence—leveraging options like DBRG20260102C13 for upside potential while hedging with P13 if volatility spikes. The next 60 days will be critical: regulatory approvals, shareholder votes, and SoftBank’s AI roadmap could either validate or disrupt this trade.