DeXe/Tether (DEXEUSDT) Market Overview – October 4, 2025

• DeXe/Tether (DEXEUSDT) traded in a wide range today, with a high of 12.855 and a low of 12.072.
• Price showed a strong bearish trend after midday ET, followed by a tentative rebound in the afternoon.
• Volume spiked during key price swings, especially in the early morning and late afternoon.
• RSI and MACD signals suggest overbought and oversold conditions, indicating potential for reversal or continuation.
• Price closed near a minor Fibonacci support level, hinting at a possible bounce or breakdown.

DeXe/Tether (DEXEUSDT) opened at 12.615 on October 3, 2025 at 12:00 ET and closed at 12.159 at 12:00 ET on October 4. The pair reached a high of 12.855 and a low of 12.072 during the 24-hour period. Total volume was approximately 194,733.2 units, and notional turnover amounted to $2.43 million. The price action showed a strong bearish bias after a midday pullback, with mixed momentum signals suggesting possible consolidation ahead.

Structure & Formations

Price formed several significant structures today, including a bearish engulfing pattern around 03:15 ET and a bullish hammer near the 15:00 ET time frame. Key resistance levels emerged at 12.60–12.65, where price stalled multiple times. On the downside, 12.40 and 12.20 acted as strong support levels. A breakdown below 12.20 would likely trigger further bearish momentum, while a retest of the 12.60–12.65 range could result in a consolidation or reversal.

Support & Resistance Levels

- Support: 12.40 (strong), 12.20 (key), 12.072 (intraday low)- Resistance: 12.60–12.65 (cluster), 12.70–12.80 (potential)

A doji formed near 12.40–12.45, suggesting indecision and possible reversal. The bearish engulfing pattern around 03:15 ET confirmed a reversal to the downside and reinforced the bearish bias for the remainder of the session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (MAs) crossed below the price line during the bearish phase, confirming the downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 200-period MA, signaling a bearish crossover. The 100-period MA also dipped below the 200-period MA, reinforcing the bearish bias. These crossovers suggest that the trend could continue for at least the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the early morning, confirming bearish momentum. Negative divergence occurred during the afternoon rebound, suggesting the trend could reverse or consolidate. The RSI dipped into oversold territory at 12.072, indicating a potential bounce back, but without a strong bullish candle, this may not be enough to reverse the trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the early morning and late afternoon, with price touching the lower band during the 12.072 low. This expansion indicates increased uncertainty and potential for either a consolidation or breakout. Price currently sits slightly above the middle band on the 15-minute chart, suggesting it is in a neutral zone. A retest of the lower band or a break above the upper band would signal a potential reversal or continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at key turning points, especially during the 03:15–03:45 ET and 05:15–05:45 ET periods, confirming the bearish sentiment. The total notional turnover of $2.43 million indicates moderate activity, with a bearish bias in the latter half of the session. Price and turnover diverged slightly during the afternoon rebound, suggesting that the move may lack conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key swing from 12.855 to 12.072, 12.40 corresponds to the 38.2% level and 12.20 corresponds to the 61.8% level. A close below 12.20 would suggest a breakdown to the 78.6% level at ~12.00. On the 15-minute chart, intraday swings also showed Fibonacci support at 12.50 and 12.30. These levels will be key for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy suggests a trend-following approach using a combination of RSI divergence, moving average crossovers, and Fibonacci retracement levels to identify high-probability entry points. Given today's data, a long entry on a RSI divergence at 12.072 would have been triggered but lacked conviction due to weak volume. A short entry at 12.60–12.65 would have aligned with the 20/50 MA crossover and bearish engulfing pattern, offering a high probability of success. The strategy appears viable in volatile, trending markets but may struggle in sideways or low-volume conditions.