Deutsche Bank Slumps 3.77% as Bearish Engulfing Pattern Signals Resistance at ¥30

Deutsche Bank (DB) closed at 29.255 on 2025-06-30, declining 3.77% with elevated volume of 4.08 million shares. This sharp pullback establishes the immediate analytical context for the technical assessment.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions show notable candlestick developments. The 2025-06-24 session formed a strong bullish marubozu (open near low, close near high) on 5.43% gains with surging volume, confirming buyer conviction. However, the subsequent 2025-06-30 bearish engulfing pattern—where the red candle’s body completely swallowed the prior green candle—signals robust selling pressure near the ¥30 psychological resistance. Key support emerges at ¥27.80 (June low), while resistance is firm at ¥30.50, aligned with the March 2025 peak.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (currently ~¥28.20) slopes upward beneath prices, sustaining the intermediate trend. Crucially, the 200-day MA (¥22.80) maintains a positive trajectory, confirming the primary bull trend initiated after the 2024 November breakout. However, the latest close breached the 20-day MA, suggesting near-term consolidation. A sustained hold above the rising 100-day MA (¥26.50) would signal underlying strength.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a bearish crossover in positive territory, with histogram bars contracting—a warning of decelerating momentum after the June rally. KDJ (14,3,3) simultaneously retreated from overbought territory (K-value previously >80), though it hasn’t yet reached oversold levels. This divergence between MACD’s bearish signal and KDJ’s neutral reset suggests consolidation rather than reversal, with momentum equilibrium yet to be established.
Bollinger Bands
June’s rally stretched prices to the upper band (¥30.50), triggering a sharp reversion to the mean as bands expanded—a classic volatility reset. Current price sits near the 20-day moving average (mid-band ~¥28.90). A sustained break below ¥28.00 would target the lower band (¥27.20), while holding ¥28.50 could indicate band support and reduced volatility compression.
Volume-Price Relationship
The 2025-06-30 decline occurred on the highest volume in two weeks (4.08M shares), lending credibility to the bearish candle. Earlier bull phases were validated by volume surges: the 2025-06-24 breakout saw volume spike 47% above average, confirming accumulation. Conversely, the 2025-06-27 marginal new high occurred on declining volume—a negative divergence that foreshadowed the retreat. Volume must stabilize near averages to support basing activity.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI cooled from 68 (approaching overbought) to 45 after the sell-off, returning to neutral territory. This reset aligns with price mean reversion but doesn’t yet indicate oversold conditions. The March 2025 overbought signal (RSI >75) preceded a 15% correction, underscoring its utility as a contrarian warning. Current RSI supports range-bound action absent extremes.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the 2024 November trough (¥16.20) and 2025 June peak (¥30.50) reveals key confluences. The 38.2% retracement (¥25.00) aligns with the April 2025 consolidation base and the 100-day MA—a major support zone. The 50% level (¥23.35) converges with the 200-day MA and the Q1 2025 breakout point. Notably, the recent pullback halted near the 23.6% retracement (¥27.80), making this level pivotal for trend continuity.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Confluence exists at ¥27.80, where the 23.6% Fib, June low, and Bollinger lower band converge—a critical defensive level for bulls. Divergence emerged as MACD turned bearish while RSI remained neutral, hinting at unresolved directional tension. The volume-price divergence on the June 27 minor new high also warned of exhaustion. Should ¥27.80 fail, the 38.2% Fib/100-day MA confluence at ¥25.00 offers the next significant support.