Deutsche Bank CEO Warns Trading Revenue May Decline This Quarter

Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing warned that revenue from trading is likely to decline in the first quarter of 2026 amid unfavorable currency swings for the German lender according to Bloomberg.

Sewing made the comments at a conference organized by Morgan Stanley, stating that overall revenue at the investment bank is likely to be flat compared with a year earlier as reported.

Rising income from origination and advisory businesses is expected to offset the decline in fixed income.

“Adjusted for FX, we are rising in the trading business,” Sewing said, adding that the bank reported very strong first-quarter earnings in 2025. The actual figure could still change as the quarter is not yet over according to Bloomberg.

Why Did This Happen?

The warning comes amid ongoing headwinds from macroeconomic volatility and currency fluctuations that have affected many global financial institutions according to Bloomberg. Sewing's comments reflect the broader uncertainty in financial markets, which has impacted trading volumes and margins as reported.

The CEO noted that the bank has reported a strong start to the year in certain areas of the business, such as macro products, currencies, and emerging markets according to Bloomberg. However, these gains have not been enough to fully offset the potential drag on trading revenue.

The market's reaction highlights the sensitivity of investor sentiment to earnings guidance from the bank, particularly given its recent history of restructuring and profitability challenges according to Bloomberg. Analysts have closely monitored the bank's ability to maintain consistent revenue performance across its investment banking operations.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Deutsche Bank's finance chief, James von Moltke, highlighted a strong start to the year in January, citing performance in macro products, currencies, and emerging markets according to Bloomberg. However, Sewing's latest comments suggest that the bank faces continued challenges in its trading divisions as the quarter progresses.

Investors are now focused on the bank's full-quarter performance and whether its advisory and origination business will continue to provide a buffer against any further declines in trading revenue as reported. The market will likely respond strongly to the final numbers when they are released.

Sewing's comments also come at a time when Deutsche Bank has authorized €2.9 billion in shareholder returns for 2026, including a €1.00 per share dividend and a €1.0 billion share buyback program according to Chronicon. The bank's ability to meet its profitability and capital return goals will be a key focus for investors and analysts alike according to Chronicon.