Denmark Downgrades 2025 GDP Growth Forecast to 1.4% Amid Novo Nordisk Weakness and Tariff Hike

Denmark has halved its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.4% from 3% due to weaker prospects for Novo Nordisk and US tariff increases. Exports are expected to grow just 0.9% in 2025, down from 4.3% in May. The pharmaceutical industry remains key to Denmark's economy but is expected to slow down.

Denmark has significantly reduced its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.4% from an earlier estimate of 3%, citing weaker prospects for pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk and the impact of US tariff increases [1]. The Danish government has revised its export growth expectation for 2025 to just 0.9%, a substantial decrease from the May forecast of 4.3% [2].

The primary driver behind this adjustment is the declining performance of Novo Nordisk, which has seen its market share in the US erode due to increased competition and the rise of generic medicines. The company, known for its blockbuster weight management drugs Ozempic and Wegovy, has had to cut its sales and profit guidance twice this year [3]. This has led to a significant drop in Denmark's exports, which are now expected to grow by only 0.9% in 2025 [4].

Denmark's Economy Minister Stephanie Lose stated that while the pharmaceutical industry remains crucial to the country's economy, the rapid growth seen in recent years is unlikely to continue at the same pace [1]. Despite the downward revision, the minister highlighted that Denmark's economy remains robust, with high employment and inflation expected to be below 2% annually [3].

The Danish government has also revised its 2026 growth forecast to 2.1%, up from 1.4%, indicating a more optimistic outlook for the following year [3]. This upward revision is attributed to anticipated increases in private and public consumption.

References:
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-28/denmark-slashes-economic-growth-forecast-as-novo-nordisk-slumps
[2] https://www.marketscreener.com/news/denmark-halves-economic-growth-outlook-on-novo-nordisk-weakness-tariff-hit-bloomberg-says-citing-ce7c50dcd18ff72d
[3] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/29/denmark-slashes-2025-growth-forecast-amid-novo-nordisk-slowdown-.html
[4] https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/denmark-halves-economic-growth-forecast-on-novo-nordisk-weakness-bloomberg-says-4215611