Dell Technologies: The AI Infrastructure Play to Own Now

Nathaniel StoneThursday, May 29, 2025 10:40 pm ET
74min read

The AI revolution isn't just theoretical—it's already reshaping the tech infrastructure landscape, and Dell Technologies (DELL) is at the epicenter of this transformation. With record AI server orders, a robust backlog, and strategic partnerships fueling margin expansion, Dell is primed to dominate the $300 billion data center hardware market. This is not just a cyclical boom—it's a secular shift. Here's why investors should act now.

The AI Server Gold Rush: Dell's Backlog and Pipeline Signal Explosive Demand

Dell's Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG), the engine of its AI-driven growth, reported $11.6 billion in revenue for Q2 2025—a 38% year-over-year surge—driven by AI server sales hitting $3.2 billion (up 23% sequentially). The company's AI server backlog now stands at $3.8 billion, with its sales pipeline growing to “several multiples of the backlog,” according to CFO Yvonne McGill. This is no typo: Dell's AI order book has become a goldmine.

While competitors like HPE and Supermicro scramble to catch up, Dell's $3.8 billion backlog is a testament to its scale and integration with leading AI chips. NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang recently praised Dell as a top partner, noting its role in deploying systems powered by H100 and Blackwell GPUs. Dell's NVIDIA SuperPOD-certified PowerScale storage and Project Lightning collaboration further cement its position as the go-to vendor for enterprises building AI at scale.

Margin Expansion: The AI Flywheel Is Spinning

The real magic here isn't just top-line growth—it's the margin lift. Dell's ISG operating margin hit 11% in Q2, up from 8% in Q1, as high-value AI servers and proprietary storage (PowerMax, PowerStore) offset declines in commodity storage. Analysts now project ISG margins to hit 11.7% in Q3 and 12.5% by 2026, well within Dell's long-term target of 11–14%.

The $1.3 billion in operating income from ISG in Q2 was 22% higher than last year, proving that AI isn't just a revenue driver—it's a profit machine. Meanwhile, Dell's $1 billion in share buybacks and dividend payments show the company is capitalizing on its cash flow to reward investors.

Why Dell's AI Play Can't Be Ignored

  1. Enterprise Adoption is Exploding: Dell noted a rising number of enterprise customers purchasing AI solutions every quarter, with demand spanning cloud providers, manufacturing, and healthcare.
  2. Supply Chain Control: While competitors face chip shortages, Dell's partnership with NVIDIA ensures it gets first dibs on the latest GPUs.
  3. Storage Dominance: Even as traditional storage dipped 5%, Dell's proprietary IP storage (e.g., PowerScale) grew double-digits, proving its shift to high-margin solutions is working.

Risks? Yes. But the Upside Outweighs Them

Critics will point to soft PC demand (Client Solutions Group revenue down 4%) and gross margin pressure (down 230bps to 21.8% due to AI server mix). But Dell's strategy is clear: let consumer tech fade while doubling down on AI infrastructure. With $6 billion in cash and a $95.5–98.5 billion full-year revenue guidance raise, the company is financially fortified to outlast near-term headwinds.

Investor Takeaway: This Is a Multi-Year Growth Story

Dell isn't just riding a hype cycle—it's building a moat. Its AI server backlog and pipeline, paired with margin expansion and NVIDIA's seal of approval, position it to capture $15 billion in AI server sales by 2026 (up from $10 billion in 2024). For investors, this is a buy now, hold forever opportunity.

Act now: Dell's valuation is still reasonable at 15x 2026 EPS estimates, and its AI-led growth could send shares soaring as the market realizes this isn't just a “tech rebound”—it's a structural shift. Historically, buying Dell on earnings announcement dates and holding for 20 days has generated an average return of 6%, though with significant volatility—highlighting the need for risk management. The AI train has left the station. Dell is driving it.

This is not financial advice. Consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.