Deglobalization and the Reshaping of Infrastructure Investment: Strategic Sector Positioning in a Fragmented World

The era of globalization, once defined by seamless capital flows and integrated supply chains, is giving way to a fragmented world order. Deglobalization—driven by geopolitical tensions, protectionist policies, and the push for economic self-reliance—is reshaping infrastructure investment strategies. For institutional investors, this shift demands a reevaluation of sector positioning and capital allocation. Macquarie Group, a global leader in infrastructure finance, has emerged as a bellwether for navigating these changes, leveraging its expertise in energy transition, digital infrastructure, and transportation to capitalize on the new paradigm.

The Energy Transition: A Pillar of Resilience

The energy transition remains a cornerstone of infrastructure investment, with global spending reaching $2.1 trillion in 2024, an 11% increase from the prior yearBloombergNEF, *Energy Transition Investment Trends*^[1]. Macquarie has positioned itself at the forefront of this shift through its Green Energy Transition Solutions (MGETS) fund, which closed with $3 billion in commitmentsMacquarie Asset Management, *Green Energy Transition Solutions Fund*^[2]. This fund targets subsectors such as energy storage, renewable fuels, and carbon capture, reflecting a strategic pivot toward technologies that align with decarbonization goals. For instance, Macquarie's $405 million investment in Vertelo, an Indian fleet electrification platform, underscores its focus on emerging markets where energy demand is surgingMacquarie Asset Management, *Green Energy Transition Solutions Fund*^[2].

The firm's energy transition strategy is further reinforced by deglobalization trends. As nations prioritize energy security—exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-China trade tensions—infrastructure in renewables and grid modernization is gaining policy tailwinds. Macquarie's CEO, Shemara Wikramanayake, has noted that Europe and Asia remain “significant markets for renewable opportunities,” even as the U.S. retreats from federal clean energy funding under the Trump administrationBloombergNEF, *Energy Transition Investment Trends*^[1]. This regional diversification mitigates risks from policy reversals in any single market.

Digital Infrastructure: The New Frontier

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC) has created a surge in demand for digital infrastructure, particularly data centers and fiber networks. Macquarie has responded aggressively, allocating $17 billion to two major investments in 2025: $5 billion in Applied Digital and $12 billion in Aligned Data CentersMacquarie Asset Management, *Investments in Applied Digital and Aligned Data Centers*^[3]. These investments are not merely about scale but about addressing structural bottlenecks. Applied Digital's Ellendale HPC Campus in North Dakota, for example, is designed to support over 400 megawatts of capacity, directly addressing the power constraints that limit AI expansionMacquarie Asset Management, *Investments in Applied Digital and Aligned Data Centers*^[3].

This focus on digital infrastructure aligns with broader macroeconomic trends. Falling interest rates and robust GDP growth are enhancing the appeal of infrastructure as an asset class, with Macquarie projecting total returns of 11–12% in 2025Macquarie Asset Management, *Infrastructure Outlook 2025*^[4]. However, the sector is not without risks. U.S. tariffs on construction materials like steel and aluminum have increased project costs, forcing investors to reassess timelines and marginsProcido, *Navigating the Impacts of Tariffs on the Construction and Infrastructure Sectors*^[5]. Macquarie's Americas-focused Macquarie Infrastructure Partners VI (MIP VI), which closed with $8 billion in commitments, mitigates these risks by prioritizing assets with stable cash flows and inflation protection, such as transportation and waste managementMacquarie Asset Management, *Macquarie Infrastructure Partners VI*^[6].

Transportation and Logistics: Navigating a Reshaped Supply Chain

Deglobalization is accelerating the reshoring and nearshoring of industries, necessitating significant upgrades to transportation and logistics infrastructure. Macquarie's investments in companies like Diamond Infrastructure Solutions and TraPac Terminals reflect this trendMacquarie Asset Management, *Macquarie Infrastructure Partners VI*^[6]. These assets are critical for supporting domestic reindustrialization, particularly in the U.S., where the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act are redirecting capital toward semiconductors and renewable energyRoland Berger, *Infrastructure Investment Outlook 2025*^[7].

Yet, the sector faces headwinds. Trade tariffs and retaliatory measures—such as Canada's 1–4% increase in construction costs due to U.S. tariffs—have fragmented global trade dynamicsProcido, *Navigating the Impacts of Tariffs on the Construction and Infrastructure Sectors*^[5]. Macquarie's strategy of emphasizing regional allocations, particularly in the Americas, allows it to capitalize on policy-driven opportunities while avoiding the volatility of transnational supply chains. The firm's 49% equity stake in Diamond Infrastructure Solutions further illustrates its commitment to long-term value creation in this spaceMacquarie Asset Management, *Macquarie Infrastructure Partners VI*^[6].

Strategic Implications for Capital Allocation

The interplay of deglobalization and macroeconomic shifts demands a nuanced approach to capital allocation. Macquarie's 2025 outlook highlights three key principles:
1. Regional Diversification: Prioritizing markets with strong policy support, such as the EU and North America, while hedging against geopolitical risksMacquarie Asset Management, *Infrastructure Outlook 2025*^[4].
2. ESG Integration: Embedding environmental, social, and governance factors into investment decisions to enhance resilience against regulatory and climate-related shocksMacquarie Asset Management, *Macquarie Infrastructure Partners VI*^[6].
3. Active Management: Avoiding passive allocations in favor of selective, high-conviction investments in sectors like energy transition and digital infrastructureRoland Berger, *Infrastructure Investment Outlook 2025*^[7].

Conclusion

Deglobalization is not a passing trend but a structural shift that will redefine infrastructure investment for years to come. For firms like Macquarie, success lies in aligning capital with sectors that offer both resilience and growth—energy transition, digital infrastructure, and transportation—while adapting to regional policy landscapes. As interest rates normalize and GDP growth stabilizes, infrastructure's dual role as a defensive and growth-oriented asset will become increasingly valuable. Investors who position themselves accordingly will not only weather the fragmentation of the global economy but thrive within it.