DeFi Outflows Pressure Bitcoin as ETF Exodus Persists

• Bitcoin trades range-bound between $81k-$93k despite cooling inflation.
• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs see $3.4 billion net outflows since early November.
• Solana ETFs buck trend with 20-day inflow streak including record $58m session.
• Bernstein analysts argue crypto markets have bottomed, targeting $150k BTC.

Bitcoin faces persistent pressure despite favorable macroeconomic developments like cooling U.S. inflation and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $3.4 billion in net outflows since early November, reducing crucial buying pressure. Solana ETFs defied this trend with consistent inflows suggesting selective institutional confidence. These opposing flows highlight crypto's complex current dynamics.

Why Aren't Macro Tailwinds Boosting Bitcoin?

Bitcoin remains stuck between $81,000 and $93,000 despite supportive macro catalysts. The 10-year TIPS real yield held around 1.90% offsetting potential Fed easing benefits. Record usage of the New York Fed’s Standing Repo Facility signaled dollar liquidity constraints. Meanwhile U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $3.4 billion net outflows since November 4th limiting upside momentum. Market structure changes post-ETF approval have muted traditional price catalysts. Investors await clearer transmission of macro easing through yields and flows.

Persistent outflows create structural resistance for Bitcoin price action.

ETF withdrawals have counteracted positive factors like dollar weakness and cooling inflation. Capital rotation towards yield-generating alternatives also pressures the asset class. Elevated real yields and funding market tightness restrict breakouts from the established trading band. Measurable easing through these channels remains essential for significant movement.

Has the Crypto Market Bottomed?

Bernstein analysts contend Bitcoin and broader crypto markets have bottomed. They cite a growing tokenization supercycle encompassing stablecoins and prediction markets. Crypto equities delivered 59% average returns during Bitcoin's 2025 decline signaling institutional conviction. Their analysis projects Bitcoin reaching $150,000 in 2026 and $200,000 by 2027. Tokenized assets are expected to double from $37 billion to $80 billion value locked this year.

Solana ETFs provide corroborating evidence of selective institutional accumulation. Bitwise's BSOL recorded $39.5 million single-day inflows during a record $58 million session. Cumulative Solana ETF inflows reached $568.24 million with net assets hitting $843.81 million. Grayscale's GSOL offers a 7.23% annual staking yield returned to holders. The Solana ETF SOLZ also saw fresh inflows as traders positioned for potential market bottoms. These flows contrast sharply with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF outflows.

What Is the 2026 Outlook for Bitcoin and Crypto Markets?

Bitcoin faces opposing forces between institutional re-entry and lingering outflows. Q1 2026 brought $471 million net Bitcoin ETF inflows led by BlackRock's IBIT. Institutions now hold 31% of known Bitcoin with 60% preferring regulated vehicles like ETFs. Regulatory clarity including the Clarity Act could reduce uncertainty supporting adoption. Bitcoin's scarcity and growing ancient supply enhance its store-of-value narrative.

Macro liquidity conditions remain critical for sustained Bitcoin appreciation. Easing dollar funding markets and rising inflationary risks could boost demand. However ETF flows must transition from net outflows to consistent inflows. Solana's momentum suggests yield generation appeals to institutions seeking efficient exposure. Tokenization growth could propel crypto equities like Robinhood and Coinbase. Bitcoin needs measurable transmission of macro easing through real yields and ETF flows.