Defense Industrial Base Resilience: Strategic Investment in Critical Materials Suppliers Like U.S. Antimony

The U.S. defense industrial base (DIB) stands at a critical juncture. Recent authoritative analyses underscore a stark reality: the current DIB lacks the capacity, speed, and flexibility to meet the demands of modern great power competition, particularly with ChinaNew CNAS Report Calls for Revitalizing the U.S. Defense Industrial Base for Future Great Power Conflict^[1]. As the National Defense Industrial Association's 2025 Vital Signs report notes, the mismatch between national strategic goals and industrial readiness poses a systemic risk to national securityA Critical Mineral in a Critical Moment: The Antimony Crisis^[3]. This vulnerability is most acute in the supply chains for critical materials—elements like antimony, neodymium, and tungsten that underpin advanced military technologies. For investors, this crisis represents not just a geopolitical challenge but a high-conviction opportunity in companies positioned to fortify these supply chains.

The Antimony Imperative: A Case Study in Strategic Investment

Antimony, a critical mineral used in munitions, batteries, and military-grade compounds, exemplifies the fragility of U.S. supply chains. According to a report by War on the Rocks, China controls 63% of U.S. antimony imports, and recent export restrictions have forced key defense contractors like Skydio to ration suppliesA Critical Mineral in a Critical Moment: The Antimony Crisis^[3]. The U.S. consumes over 50 million pounds of antimony annually, with 90% importedNew CNAS Report Calls for Revitalizing the U.S. Defense Industrial Base for Future Great Power Conflict^[1]. This dependency has spurred urgent action from the Department of Defense (DoD), which awarded United States Antimony Corporation (UAMY) a sole-source, $245 million contract to supply antimony ingots for the National Defense StockpileNew CNAS Report Calls for Revitalizing the U.S. Defense Industrial Base for Future Great Power Conflict^[1].

UAMY's strategic position is unparalleled. As the only fully integrated antimony operation outside China, the company operates two North American smelters capable of meeting DoD specificationsNew CNAS Report Calls for Revitalizing the U.S. Defense Industrial Base for Future Great Power Conflict^[1]. Its recent financial performance further validates its investment potential: UAMY reported a 160% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2 2025, with gross profit surging 183% and net income rising 707%United States Antimony at Q3 Investor Summit: Strategic Expansion and Growth^[2]. The DoD contract alone could multiply UAMY's 2024 revenue ($14.9 million) by over 16 timesA Critical Mineral in a Critical Moment: The Antimony Crisis^[3].

Historical data on UAMY's earnings events from 2022 to 2025 reveals a compelling pattern. While the stock typically underperforms on the day of earnings announcements (averaging -2.7%), it has historically delivered strong returns over a 22–23 trading-day window post-release, with an average excess return of +33% relative to the benchmark. This delayed market reaction suggests that investors may benefit from a disciplined, medium-term hold following earnings reports, aligning with UAMY's long-duration DoD contracts and industrial policy tailwinds.

Policy-Driven Growth and Industrial Policy Innovation

The DoD's partnership with UAMY reflects a broader shift in U.S. industrial policy. The Trump administration's focus on domestic critical materials has included innovative tools like long-term offtake agreements, price floors, and equity investments. For example, the DoD's $400 million equity stake in MP Materials—a neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) producer—demonstrates how demand-side interventions can stabilize supply chainsUnpacking the DoD and MP Materials Critical Minerals Partnership^[4]. Similarly, UAMY's contract includes a 10-year price floor and guaranteed offtake, ensuring predictable revenue streams and deterring speculative market volatilityNew CNAS Report Calls for Revitalizing the U.S. Defense Industrial Base for Future Great Power Conflict^[1].

These policies are not theoretical. The CNAS 2025 report outlines a roadmap for DIB revitalization, emphasizing the need to attract nontraditional contractors and small businesses to diversify the ecosystemNew CNAS Report Calls for Revitalizing the U.S. Defense Industrial Base for Future Great Power Conflict^[1]. UAMY's expansion into Alaska and Montana, including a quadrupling of production capacity in Thompson Falls by December 2025United States Antimony at Q3 Investor Summit: Strategic Expansion and Growth^[2], aligns with this vision. The company's exploration of acquisitions in antimony, tungsten, and cobalt further positions it as a consolidator in a fragmented sectorUnited States Antimony at Q3 Investor Summit: Strategic Expansion and Growth^[2].

Geopolitical Diversification and Risk Mitigation

The urgency of securing antimony supply chains is compounded by China's dominance and geopolitical tensions. As The National Interest highlights, China's 2024 antimony export ban to the U.S. has forced the Pentagon to accelerate nearshoring and ally-based sourcingNew CNAS Report Calls for Revitalizing the U.S. Defense Industrial Base for Future Great Power Conflict^[1]. Tajikistan, now the second-largest antimony producer, has emerged as a key partner, while UAMY's Mexican smelting operations aim to produce 200 tons monthly by year-endA Critical Mineral in a Critical Moment: The Antimony Crisis^[3]. These efforts reduce exposure to Chinese-controlled refining capacity (50% of global output) and align with the DoD's $439 million investment in critical mineral projectsUnited States Antimony at Q3 Investor Summit: Strategic Expansion and Growth^[2].

For investors, the risk-reward profile is compelling. UAMY's direct offering to strengthen its balance sheet and attract institutional capitalUnited States Antimony at Q3 Investor Summit: Strategic Expansion and Growth^[2], coupled with its billion-dollar market cap ambitionsUnited States Antimony at Q3 Investor Summit: Strategic Expansion and Growth^[2], signals aggressive growth. Meanwhile, the DoD's 10-year price floor for NdPr (via MP Materials) and UAMY's contract provide downside protection in a sector prone to cyclical volatilityUnpacking the DoD and MP Materials Critical Minerals Partnership^[4].

A Call to Action for Investors

The defense industrial base's resilience hinges on securing critical materials. With U.S. antimony imports at 90% and China's strategic export restrictions, the window for action is narrowing. UAMY's $245 million contract, backed by DoD guarantees and a 16X revenue growth trajectory, offers a rare combination of policy tailwinds and operational scalability. For investors, this is not merely a commodity play—it is a strategic bet on national security.