Deere Stock Plunges 6.76% Amid Technical Breakdown And Heavy Volume

Deere (DE) experienced a significant 6.76% decline to $478.84 in the latest session, closing near the day’s low of $470.50 amid elevated volume. This analysis evaluates key technical dynamics using a multi-indicator framework.
Candlestick Theory
The recent price action reveals a decisive breakdown. The August 14 bearish engulfing candle (high: $485.36, low: $470.50, close: $478.84) erased the prior four sessions' gains, confirming overhead resistance near $500. Lower shadows between $470–$475 in mid-May and early August establish initial support, while the $485–$490 range now becomes immediate resistance. A close below $470 may trigger further downside toward $450.
Moving Average Theory
The moving averages reflect weakening momentum. Current price ($478.84) trades below all key averages: 50-day ($502), 100-day ($498), and 200-day ($475). The 50-day crossing below the 100-day in late July suggests intermediate bearish momentum. However, proximity to the ascending 200-day MA ($475) could offer stabilization if tested. The long-term trend remains neutral, while near-term structure leans bearish.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a bearish crossover below its signal line, with the histogram in negative territory, supporting downward momentum. KDJ (9,3,3) is oversold (K: 18, D: 25, J: 4), signaling potential exhaustion in selling pressure. Divergence is noted: MACD reaffirms bearishness, while KDJ implies a possible near-term bounce. Investors are advised to monitor these indicators for confirmation of reversal or continuation.
Bollinger Bands
Bands expanded sharply during the August 14 sell-off (20-day MA: $510, σ: $15), reflecting surging volatility. Price closed below the lower band ($480), typically indicating oversold conditions. Historical band squeezes preceded directional breaks (e.g., mid-May expansion preceded a rally). Current positioning suggests either consolidation near $480–$490 or a retest of $470 support.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged to 5.1M shares during the decline, exceeding the 30-day average by 150%, validating bearish conviction. Notably, volume on up days (e.g., July 31 rally: 3.2M shares) was lower, suggesting weak buying interest. Sustained high volume on further weakness would confirm continued distribution.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
14-day RSI dropped to 28, entering oversold territory. This reading historically precedes short-term bounces (e.g., May 2025’s RSI=30 preceded a 12% rally). However, oversold conditions can persist in strong downtrends. RSI divergence is absent, aligning with bearish momentum. Caution is warranted until RSI reclaims 40.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of $373 (August 2024) and high of $531 (May 2025), key retracement levels are $452 (50%), $471 (38.2%), and $494 (23.6%). The August 14 low ($470) aligns precisely with the 38.2% support ($471), creating a pivotal technical floor. A bounce above $485 would target $494 (23.6%), while failure at $470 opens risk to $452.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence appears at $470–$475: candlestick support, Fibonacci 38.2% level, and the 200-day MA converge here. Breakdown confirmation would involve sustained volume and a close below $470. Divergence exists between momentum oscillators (MACD bearish vs. KDJ/RSI oversold), suggesting indecision. A move above the $490 resistance with supportive volume would strengthen reversal prospects.