Deere Stock Jumps 3.25% On Heavy Volume As Technicals Signal Strong Uptrend

Deere (DE) concluded the most recent session at $524.37, reflecting a significant gain of 3.25% driven by robust trading volume exceeding 1.54 million shares. This strong positive close positions the stock near recent highs and warrants examination across multiple technical frameworks.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals constructive patterns. The session ending July 31st formed a decisive bullish candle with a wide range ($512 to $526.56) closing near its high, indicating strong buying pressure following a period of consolidation around the $505 level. This pattern suggests a breakout above the immediate resistance level near $516-$520. Conversely, a notable hammer pattern formed on July 21st near $496, establishing a significant support level that coincides with the 50-day moving average and the psychologically important $500 zone. This confluence highlights $496-$500 as critical support, while resistance now materializes near the recent peak of $526.56 and the psychologically significant $530 level tested in late June.
Moving Average Theory
Deere's moving averages depict a robust bullish trend across key timeframes. The 50-day moving average (MA, approximating $508) provides dynamic support, recently confirmed by price bounces. Crucially, the 50-day MA remains above both the 100-day MA (approx. $480) and the 200-day MA (approx. $445), confirming a strong intermediate and long-term uptrend. The rising slope of all three averages further reinforces the positive momentum.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) exhibits a strengthening bullish bias. After a period of convergence following a bearish crossover signal in late June, the MACD histogram has turned positive, and the MACD line itself is rising towards the signal line, suggesting potential for a fresh bullish crossover supporting near-term upside momentum. Simultaneously, the KDJ oscillator (9,3,3) signals strength; the %K line has crossed above the %D line while both are rising from neutral territory (around 50), indicating improving momentum. While approaching overbought territory, the %K hasn't exceeded 80 yet, suggesting room for further upside before exhaustion signals are confirmed.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20 periods, 2 std. dev.) are undergoing expansion, particularly following the strong move on July 31st, indicating heightened volatility consistent with a trending move. Price closed near the upper band ($522-$523), which typically suggests the short-term trend is strong and continuation is possible, though it may signal the stock is becoming stretched in the very near term. Prior band contraction between late June and mid-July hinted at a potential volatility expansion, which has now materialized to the upside.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume analysis generally validates the recent bullish move. The significant breakout on July 31st was accompanied by well-above-average volume (~1.55M shares versus recent average around 1M-1.2M), lending strong credibility to the upside momentum. Down days, like July 30th's minor decline, often occurred on lighter volume, suggesting a lack of strong selling conviction during pullbacks within the broader uptrend. This volume profile suggests accumulation is more dominant than distribution.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Calculated over 14 periods, the RSI reading has climbed significantly, currently near 68. This approaches the overbought threshold (70), indicating increasing upward momentum but also suggesting the rally could be nearing short-term exhaustion. However, crossing above 70 is not an immediate sell signal in a strong uptrend; it requires confirmation from other indicators for a potential pullback or reversal. The RSI has successfully held above the key 40-50 support zone during recent pullbacks, confirming underlying strength.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the significant upward swing from the August 2024 low near $351 to the recent peak near $530 reveals key retracement levels. The 23.6% retracement sits around $495, while the 38.2% retracement aligns near $472. Deere consistently found strong support around the 23.6% level ($495) in July, demonstrating its significance. This level reinforces the major support zone identified through candlestick lows and the 50-day MA. The next significant retracement level for potential resistance is the 161.8% extension from this major move, residing considerably higher near $590. A sustained breach above $530 would target the psychological $550 level and potentially higher.
Summary and Confluence
Deere exhibits a strongly bullish technical posture characterized by a confirmed uptrend across moving averages, positive MACD trajectory, constructive volume confirmation on breaks higher, and price holding critical support levels. Key confluence is observed around $505-$510, where the 50-day MA and the significant Fibonacci 23.6% retracement reside alongside prior price support. This zone provides a robust technical foundation. Potential near-term resistance resides at the recent high of $526.56 and the psychological $530 barrier. While the RSI approaching 70 warrants caution for a potential short-term consolidation or pullback, the strength across momentum indicators and volume suggests any retracement towards the $505-$510 support confluence may present a buying opportunity within the prevailing uptrend. Traders should monitor for a decisive break above $530 for continuation towards $550, or conversely, a breakdown below the $495-$500 key support zone with significant volume, which could signal a deeper corrective phase.