Deere Outlook - Mixed Signals Amid Volatility

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Deere (DE) is showing mixed signals with weak technical indicators, but decent money flows offer some support. Current price is down -1.70%, and analysts remain divided.

News Highlights

Recent news has included developments across agriculture, tech, and geopolitics:

• May 31: China’s factory activity slightly improved. The PMI rose to 49.5 in May, indicating a contraction but at a slower pace. This could indirectly benefit Deere if demand for agricultural machinery stabilizes in Asia.
• May 31: REX Shares filed for Ethereum and Solana ETFs. While not directly related, crypto market movements can influence broader investor sentiment and risk appetite, which could indirectly affect Deere's stock flow.
• May 31: Trump fast-tracks Utah uranium mine. While uranium is not part of Deere’s core operations, the news reflects a broader push for infrastructure and industrial development, potentially supportive for long-term demand in the equipment space.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts are split, with a simple average rating of 4.00 and a performance-weighted average of 2.84. There are five institutions involved, with ratings ranging from “Underperform” to “High quality institutions,” indicating a clear dispersion of views. The current price trend is negative (-1.70%), but the market's neutral expectations align with the price direction.

Key fundamentals:

• PE ratio: 90.71 — High valuation, internal diagnostic score: 3
• EV/EBIT: 73.01 — High leverage, internal diagnostic score: 3
• Revenue-MV ratio: 2.17 — Strong revenue strength, internal diagnostic score: 2
• Basic EPS YoY growth: -33.45% — Declining earnings, internal diagnostic score: 3
• Cash-MV ratio: -24.22% — Weak cash position, internal diagnostic score: 3
• CFOA (Cash from operations): 1.60% — Weak operational cash flow, internal diagnostic score: 3

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money flows are currently negative, with large and extra-large investors pulling back. The block inflow ratio is at 48.78%, indicating cautious sentiment among institutional players.

On the positive side, retail flows are positive, with the Small_inflow_ratio at 50.33%. This suggests retail investors are still optimistic, even as big money remains bearish. The fund-flow score is 7.78 (good), indicating decent overall support despite the mixed institutional signal.

Key Technical Signals

Technical indicators for Deere over the last 5 days are mixed, with 2 bull and 2 bear signals, leading to an internal diagnostic score of 4.18, indicating “Weak technology, need to be cautious.”

• WR Oversold: Internal diagnostic score 7.65 — suggesting a possible bounce after oversold conditions.
• Inverted Hammer: Internal diagnostic score 7.06 — a potential reversal signal, though the win rate is based on one event so far.
• Dividend Announcement Date: Internal diagnostic score 1.00 — historically associated with negative returns.
• Bullish Engulfing: Internal diagnostic score 1.00 — ironically bearish despite a bullish pattern name.

Recent chart patterns (by date):

• 2025-09-10: WR Oversold and Inverted Hammer — possible short-term reversal signals.
• 2025-08-27: Dividend Announcement Date and Bullish Engulfing — conflicting signals, bearish historically.

Overall, the momentum is unclear. While some reversal patterns like the Inverted Hammer suggest a potential bottom, the bearish signals and volatility remain a concern.

Conclusion

Deere remains in a volatile, directionless phase with mixed signals from analysts and technical indicators. While fundamentals remain strong in some areas, the recent price decline and bearish technical indicators warrant caution. Consider waiting for a clearer breakout or retest of key levels before taking a position. Keep a close eye on upcoming earnings and any follow-up to the recent dividend announcement for guidance on potential short-term moves.