Deere Outlook - A Cautious Technical Picture Amid Mixed Analyst Signals

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Deere (DE) faces a weak technical outlook with a 4.18 internal diagnostic score (0-10), but mixed analyst ratings and strong money flow present conflicting signals.

News Highlights

• Earnings call transcript from Titan Machinery showed positive Q1 2025 results. While this isn’t directly related to Deere, it highlights optimism in equipment demand, which could benefit Deere as a machinery manufacturer.
• China’s factory activity showed a slight improvement in May, with a PMI of 49.5, up from 49.0 in April. This could indirectly support Deere if global demand for agricultural and construction equipment picks up.
• Trump’s tariff policy has been a major focus, with recent announcements impacting global trade. If higher tariffs persist, this could create uncertainty for Deere’s international operations.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain split on Deere, with a simple average rating of 4.00 and a performance-weighted rating of 2.84. This suggests a generally negative bias when accounting for historical success rates.

• Rating Consistency: The most recent ratings are mixed: 2 “Neutral,” 2 “Strong Buy,” and 1 “Buy.” This dispersion reflects uncertainty in the market.
• Price Trend Alignment: The stock has fallen by 1.61% recently, which matches the generally bearish weighted analyst view.

Fundamental Factors

• Return on Assets (ROA): 1.69% with an internal diagnostic score of 4.24. Suggests moderate profitability.
• Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio: 90.71 (high), indicating investors are paying a premium, with an internal diagnostic score of 4.24.
• EV/EBIT: 73.01 (also high), with a score of 4.24, signaling a potentially overvalued stock.
• Cash to Market Value (Cash-MV): -24.22% (negative), indicating cash reserves are below market cap. Score: 4.24, highlighting cash flow concerns.

Money-Flow Trends

Deere is currently showing mixed money-flow signals. While large and extra-large investors are seeing a negative trend, small investors are showing a positive trend. The overall inflow ratio is 48.27%, and big-money flows (block, large, and extra-large) are trending negative. This divergence suggests that institutional investors are cautious, while retail or smaller investors are cautiously optimistic.

Key Technical Signals

• WR Oversold: Has a 7.65 internal diagnostic score (0-10) and historically shown a win rate of 62.5%. This suggests the stock may be oversold and possibly due for a bounce.
• Dividend Announcement Date: Scored 1.00 (very low), with a historical win rate of 0.0%, indicating a bearish effect from this event.
• Inverted Hammer: Scored 7.06 with a 100% win rate in limited data, suggesting a potential reversal signal.
• Bullish Engulfing: Scored 1.00 with only a 30% historical win rate, indicating this pattern has not been reliable recently.

Recent Chart Patterns: On 2025-09-10, both the WR Oversold and Inverted Hammer signals appeared, suggesting short-term volatility and a potential bottoming process.

Key Insight: The market is showing weak technical momentum with mixed signals. Long and short indicators are relatively balanced, and the overall trend is described as "weak technology, need to be cautious." Investors should closely monitor price action and news events for clarity.

Conclusion

Deere is in a technical no-man’s-land, with mixed analyst signals and weak momentum. The best strategy may be to watch for a clearer trend and key news events—particularly earnings reports and macroeconomic updates. If the WR Oversold and Inverted Hammer patterns hold, a short-term bounce could be on the horizon. For now, consider waiting for a pullback before committing to a position, given the 4.18 internal diagnostic score and the lack of consensus among analysts.