Deere Outlook: A Bearish Technical Picture Despite Mixed Market Fundamentals

1. Market Snapshot: Deere Shares Face Pressure from Bearish Signals
   Headline Takeaway: Deere (DE.N) appears to be in a technical bear market with an internal diagnostic score of 1.58 as bearish indicators like the Bearish Engulfing pattern and RSI Overbought conditions dominate. Investors are advised to avoid the stock due to its weak trend and high risk of decline.

2. News Highlights: Trump Tariffs and Market Uncertainty
   Recent news has been dominated by U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Trump announced a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, a move that could impact Deere's industrial and construction equipment business. These tariffs aim to bolster U.S. manufacturing, but they could also disrupt global trade and raise costs for Deere and its customers. Trump fast-tracks Utah uranium mine: This shows a continued focus on domestic resource development, potentially shifting capital away from traditional sectors like agriculture and equipment manufacturing. China’s manufacturing activity contracts: A second month of contraction in China's manufacturing data signals global economic headwinds, which could dampen demand for Deere's heavy machinery in international markets. Titan Machinery beats Q1 2025 EPS expectations: While not directly related to Deere, this highlights a sector showing signs of resilience, offering a contrast to Deere’s current bearish profile.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals: Mixed Signals from Analysts and Strong Financial Ratios
   Deere’s simple average analyst rating is 4.00, with a historical performance-weighted rating of 0.00. Analysts show no consistency, as reflected in a recent "Underperform" rating from Wells Fargo with a 0.00% historical win rate. This contrasts sharply with a price trend that has seen a -0.75% decline recently.

From a fundamental perspective, Deere’s financials are strong in several key areas, as reflected in the following internal diagnostic scores (0-10):

Profitability and Market Value (Profit-MV): Score 0.00 — Value: 73.03%
Gross Profit Margin (GPM): Score 3.70 — Value: 37.01%
Net Profit Margin (NPM): Score 5.21 — Value: 10.58%
Price-to-Book (PB): Score 2.00 — Value: 1.15
Price-to-Sales (PS): Score 1.00 — Value: 10.53

Though fundamentals remain generally solid, the divergence between analyst sentiment and recent price weakness suggests caution is warranted.

4. Money-Flow Trends: Institutional Buying vs. Mixed Retail Activity
   Deere has seen a mixed flow of funds in the recent period, with big-money players showing net positive inflows. Specifically, the block inflow ratio is 0.50, and the overall inflow ratio is 0.50. While large institutional investors are showing interest, the extra-large inflow ratio is just 0.50, indicating hesitation among the biggest institutional players.

Meanwhile, retail inflows remain positive, with a small inflow ratio of 0.51, suggesting that retail investors may be accumulating shares despite the bearish technical outlook.

5. Key Technical Signals: Overbought Conditions and Bearish Patterns Dominate
   Deere’s technical outlook is clearly bearish, with 3 bearish indicators and no bullish ones active in the last 5 days. Here’s a breakdown of the key signals:

Bearish Engulfing: Internal diagnostic score 2.03 — A strong bearish reversal pattern.
RSI Overbought: Score 1.71 — Suggests overextended momentum and potential pullback.
Williams %R Overbought: Score 1.00 — Indicates extended bullishness and growing bearish pressure.

Recent chart patterns include a Bearish Engulfing on 2025-11-13 and repeated Williams %R Overbought signals on 2025-11-25 and earlier. These are clear signs of a weakening trend and a potential continuation of the downward move.

Key insights from the technical analysis include: "Technical indicators show that the market is in a weak state, and we need to pay attention to the risk of decline." The momentum is clearly on the bearish side.

6. Conclusion: Consider Waiting for a Pull-Back or Better Technical Setup
   Deere is currently facing a technical headwind with a 1.58 internal diagnostic score and three bearish indicators in play. While fundamentals remain relatively strong, the market sentiment and technical indicators suggest caution or avoidance at this time. The stock is likely to remain under pressure until a clearer bullish signal emerges or until a meaningful pullback occurs.

Actionable takeaway: Consider waiting for a pull-back or a reversal signal before initiating long positions. Monitor for any strong institutional inflows or a breakout above key resistance levels as potential entry points.