Deep-Sea Mining’s Golden Opportunity: Riding Trump’s Executive Order to Market Dominance

The U.S. deep-sea mining sector is on the cusp of a transformative shift. On March 20, 2025, President Donald Trump signed Executive Order 14241, a bold directive to fast-track permits for seabed mineral extraction and bypass international regulatory hurdles. The move, reported by Reuters, has sent ripples through global markets, with stocks like The Metals Company (TMC) soaring 40% to a 52-week high of $3.39 per share. But this is more than a single company’s windfall—it’s a strategic pivot to secure U.S. dominance in critical minerals and counter China’s supply chain stranglehold.

The Immediate Market Surge: Beyond TMC’s Spotlight

While TMC’s stock surge dominates headlines, the order’s impact extends far wider. MP Materials (MP), a rare earth processor, saw shares jump over 20% as investors bet on its role in refining seabed-derived minerals like nickel and cobalt. Meanwhile, Lockheed Martin (LMT), which holds exploration licenses in the Pacific’s Clarion-Clipperton Zone, could leverage the order to accelerate commercial operations previously stalled by the UN-backed International Seabed Authority (ISA).

Geopolitical Stakes: A New Frontier in Mineral Warfare

The executive order is a direct challenge to China’s control over 80% of global rare earth production. By asserting unilateral authority over seabed resources under the U.S. Department of Commerce’s NOAA, Trump’s administration aims to secure access to minerals critical for EV batteries, defense systems, and renewable energy. Analysts estimate the deep-sea mining industry could grow to $100+ billion by 2040, supplying a quarter of global metal demand.

This pivot also aligns with bipartisan congressional efforts, such as the National Critical Minerals Act, which prioritizes domestic mineral processing. The U.S. Geological Survey has already identified $1 trillion in undiscovered critical minerals within U.S. territorial waters, positioning firms like Impossible Metals (a startup targeting American Samoa’s seabed) to capitalize on streamlined permitting.

Risks and Controversies: Navigating Legal and Environmental Headwinds

Not all stakeholders are cheering. Environmental groups warn of irreversible ecological damage, citing seabed dust and noise impacts on fragile ecosystems. The ISA, which has yet to finalize mining rules, has condemned the order as a unilateral overreach. Legal experts note the U.S. has not ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), leaving its authority in international waters ambiguous.

The Bottom Line: A Strategic Bet with High Upside—and Risks

Investors eyeing deep-sea mining must weigh two factors: strategic necessity and execution risk. On one hand, the U.S. faces an urgent need to reduce reliance on Chinese imports, with minerals like lithium and cobalt now classified as “critical” by the Department of the Interior. The order’s alignment with the Defense Production Act (DPA)—which can expedite $1.5 billion in funding for mineral projects—adds fiscal muscle to the push.

On the other hand, environmental lawsuits and international backlash could delay projects. Companies lacking strong ESG frameworks or technical expertise in seabed extraction (e.g., Lockheed’s robotics partnerships) may falter.

Conclusion: A Tectonic Shift in Resource Control

The Trump executive order marks a watershed moment. By fast-tracking permits and sidelining multilateralism, the U.S. is staking its claim on a $100 billion industry. TMC, MP, and Lockheed stand to benefit immediately, but the broader play is geopolitical: securing energy dominance in the Pacific and countering China’s mineral hegemony.

For investors, the calculus is clear: the sector’s potential returns—driven by EV adoption, defense spending, and strategic stockpiling—are enormous. However, success hinges on navigating regulatory minefields and ecological skepticism. As the Metals Company’s stock surge shows, this is a high-reward, high-risk race to the bottom of the ocean—and the spoils will go to those who move fastest.

The next frontier is now open—but the tides of regulation and geopolitics may yet shift again.