Decoding Whale Activity: Is Solana (SOL) Facing Institutional Buy or Sell Pressure?

In Q3 2025, Solana (SOL) has emerged as a focal point for institutional capital and whale activity, with conflicting signals emerging from on-chain data. To assess whether the network is experiencing net buy or sell pressure, we analyze whale movements, institutional inflows, and regulatory developments.

Whale Activity: Accumulation vs. Exchange Withdrawals

Recent on-chain data reveals a duality in whale behavior. On one hand, $372 million in SOL was accumulated in Q3 2025, with a notable $12 million transfer from Binance to Kamino Finance for staking purposes, signaling confidence in Solana’s DeFi ecosystem [3]. This aligns with broader trends of whales diversifying into projects like Remittix, which offers cross-border payment solutions [2].

Conversely, four major whale wallets withdrew $23 million in SOL from exchanges such as Bitget, potentially indicating strategic asset reallocation or short-term profit-taking [1]. Additionally, three large whale addresses deposited $17.45 million, $15.98 million, and $6.73 million into exchanges like Kraken and Binance, raising concerns about selling pressure [2]. These movements highlight a tug-of-war between long-term bullish sentiment and tactical liquidity needs.

Institutional Inflows and ETF Optimism

Institutional adoption has surged, with $1.72 billion flowing into Solana treasuries in Q3 2025, driven by 13 publicly traded firms holding 1.44% of the total supply [5]. This trend is amplified by the approval of the REX-Osprey Solana + Staking ETF (SSK) on July 2, 2025, which combines price exposure with a 7.3% staking yield [4]. Prediction markets now assign a 91% probability of a pure spot Solana ETF approval by October 2025, with major firms like VanEck and Franklin Templeton updating filings to include staking features [1].

The SEC’s recent “Project Crypto” initiative to modernize securities laws further supports this optimism, potentially streamlining approvals for staking-enabled ETFs [2]. Analysts estimate that a spot ETF could attract $5–8 billion in institutional inflows, significantly boosting liquidity and SOL’s price [5].

Technical Indicators and Market Sentiment

From a technical perspective, Solana’s price action suggests a bullish setup. An ascending triangle pattern has formed near $210 resistance, with a potential breakout target of $280–$300 if buyers confirm the level [3]. This aligns with Solana’s improved network performance, including a record 1,318 true transactions per second (TPS) in July 2025 and the Alpenglow upgrade, which reduced transaction finality times [5].

However, on-chain metrics show a 99% drop in transaction counts over the past month, indicating that the current price rally is largely driven by derivatives and speculative flows rather than organic usage [1]. This divergence underscores the importance of monitoring whale and institutional activity to gauge sustainable demand.

Conclusion: Balancing Signals for Institutional Investors

While whale selling activity and declining on-chain usage raise short-term caution, the net institutional inflows, ETF optimism, and technical bullishness suggest a stronger case for long-term buy pressure. The approval of a spot Solana ETF could act as a catalyst, unlocking billions in capital and solidifying Solana’s role as an institutional-grade asset. Investors should closely monitor whale movements and SEC updates, as these will likely dictate Solana’s trajectory in the coming months.

**Source:[1] Solana Price Forecast - SOL-USD Stalls at $210 as ETF Optimism, Profit-Taking, and Network Upgrades [https://www.tradingnews.com/news/solana-price-forecast-sol-usd-stalls-at-210-usd][2] Solana Whales Bet Big On Remittix As Analysts Expect RTX Could Outshine SOL This Month [https://www.outlookindia.com/xhub/blockchain-insights/solana-whales-bet-big-on-remittix-as-analysts-expect-rtx-could-outshine-sol-this-month][3] Solana's Path to $300 - Technical Indicators [https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604940778][4] Solana ETF Approval 2025: SOL Price Impact & Trading [https://phemex.com/blogs/solana-etf-approval-crypto-trading-2025][5] Solana Price, Live Charts, and Marketcap [https://www.coinbase.com/price/solana]