Decoding Bearish Options Volatility in Newmont (NEM): Is the Gold Giant Underestimated Ahead of Earnings?

The recent surge in bearish options activity for Newmont Corporation (NEM) has sparked renewed scrutiny ahead of its February 19, 2026, earnings report. As gold prices remain volatile and macroeconomic uncertainty looms, investors are increasingly hedging against downside risks. A closer look at options flow data reveals a compelling narrative of shifting sentiment, with implications for near-term price action.

Bearish Sentiment Gains Momentum

According to MarketChameleon data, open interest in NEM put options has risen by 2.2% to 375,618 contracts, surpassing the 52-week average of 358,158 contracts. This trend has accelerated in recent days, with a 6.8% increase in put open interest over the past five days. The put/call ratio, a key gauge of market positioning, has climbed to 0.7 based on open interest, exceeding its 52-week average of 0.6. Such a shift suggests growing pessimism among options traders, particularly in the 19-Dec-25 expiration series, where put open interest surged by 4,816 contracts.

This bearish buildup contrasts with NEM's recent earnings performance. In Q3 2025, the gold miner outperformed expectations, reporting an EPS of $1.71-$0.44 above the consensus estimate. However, the market's current positioning indicates a recalibration of risk perceptions, possibly driven by concerns over gold's exposure to interest rate cycles and NEM's operational challenges in a high-cost environment.

Earnings Volatility and Implied Move Dynamics

Newmont's upcoming earnings report will be a critical catalyst, with historical patterns offering insight into potential price swings. Data from Optionslam highlights an Earnings Volatility Rating (EVR) of 2.7 for NEM, signaling moderate volatility following announcements. For context, the implied move ahead of the Q3 2025 report was ±5.3%, but the actual post-earnings move was -6.2%, underscoring the risk of IV (implied volatility) crush according to data.

The current options market is pricing in a similar level of uncertainty. With the next earnings date set for February 19, 2026 according to Zacks, traders are likely to monitor the 19-Dec-25 expiration series for clues about positioning. The sharp increase in put open interest in this series could amplify downside pressure if the stock fails to meet expectations, particularly if gold prices weaken or NEM's production costs rise.

Implications for Near-Term Price Action

The interplay between options flow and earnings volatility creates a nuanced outlook. While NEM's fundamentals remain robust-gold's role as a safe-haven asset and NEM's strong cash flow position-options data suggests a defensive stance among investors. The elevated put open interest may act as a self-fulfilling prophecy, with increased hedging activity potentially exacerbating short-term declines.

However, a bearish bias does not necessarily equate to a negative outcome. If NEM's February report exceeds expectations, the current overhang of put options could lead to a sharp rebound, as short-sellers scramble to cover positions. The key variable will be the company's guidance for 2026, particularly its ability to navigate inflationary pressures and maintain production efficiency.

Conclusion: Underestimated or Overhyped?

The gold giant's recent options activity paints a mixed picture. While bearish sentiment is undeniably strong, it is not without counterweights. NEM's historical outperformance and the moderating EVR suggest that the market may be overestimating risks. Yet, the surge in put open interest reflects a tangible shift in risk appetite, which could influence price action regardless of earnings outcomes.

Investors should approach the February report with a dual lens: monitoring both the company's operational performance and the broader options market dynamics. In a sector as sensitive to macroeconomic shifts as gold mining, sentiment can be as influential as fundamentals.