Decoding AMD's Unusual Options Activity: A Bullish Setup Before Earnings?

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has long been a focal point for investors navigating the high-stakes world of semiconductor stocks. As the company approaches its February 3, 2026, earnings event, the options market has become a battleground of competing signals. Recent options flow data reveals a striking imbalance in call option dominance, whale-driven trades at key strike levels, and a broader narrative of bullish positioning that could foreshadow a significant price move. This analysis unpacks the implications of these trends and what they suggest for AMD's near-term trajectory.

Call Option Dominance and Key Strike Levels

The most immediate takeaway from AMD's options activity is the overwhelming preference for call options. As of December 2025, call dollar volume accounted for 75.7% of total options trading, dwarfing put volume at 24.3%. This suggests a market brimming with optimism, particularly around AMD's AI-driven growth prospects and its recent strategic partnerships.

Key strike levels have drawn particular attention. For example, call options with a strike price of $217.50 and put options at $212.50-both expiring on December 26, 2025-have seen unusual activity according to analysis. These strikes align with AMD's recent price range, indicating that traders are hedging or speculating on a potential breakout. The proximity of these strikes to AMD's current price also suggests that market participants are pricing in a high probability of the stock staying above critical support levels ahead of the earnings report.

Whale Activity: A Tale of Two Months

While the call option dominance tells a bullish story, whale activity paints a more nuanced picture. In late December 2025, bearish sentiment briefly took hold, with puts accounting for 62.4% of dollar volume in directional trades. This could reflect hedging by large investors against a potential earnings miss or broader macroeconomic concerns. However, the narrative shifted in January 2026, where 46% of big-money trades were bullish, with price targets ranging from $140 to $280 according to reports.

One standout trade was a $271,000 purchase of January 2026 call options with a $7 strike price according to Reddit users. This move, coupled with similar bullish bets in May 2026 options, suggests that institutional players are locking in exposure to AMD's long-term growth story, particularly in its data center and AI segments. The fact that these trades occurred in contracts with relatively low open interest further amplifies their significance, as they represent fresh capital entering the market.

Liquidity and Earnings Volatility: A Calculated Bet

The options market's liquidity metrics also offer clues about AMD's near-term momentum. For expirations near the February 3, 2026 earnings date, platforms like MarketChameleon and Yahoo Finance highlight elevated implied volatility and tight bid-ask spreads. This indicates that traders are willing to pay a premium for options, reflecting confidence in AMD's ability to deliver strong results.

Historically, AMD's earnings volatility has been moderate, with an Earnings Volatility Rating (EVR) of 3.0 according to options analysis. However, the recent surge in call option activity suggests that this could change. Analysts from Piper Sandler and Melius Research have already raised their 2026 price targets to $280 and $380, respectively, citing AMD's potential to capture 10% of the AI market. These targets align with the price levels implied by the options activity, reinforcing the idea that the market is pricing in a breakout.

The Broader Implications

The convergence of call option dominance, whale-driven trades, and analyst optimism points to a high-probability bullish setup for AMD. However, investors should remain cautious. The bearish trades in December 2025 highlight the risks of overexposure, particularly if earnings fall short of expectations. Additionally, the concentration of activity in specific strike levels means that AMD's price could experience sharp swings if it moves outside these ranges.

For those willing to take the plunge, the options market offers a roadmap. The $217.50 strike, in particular, could act as a psychological barrier. If AMD's stock closes above this level ahead of earnings, it could trigger a cascade of call option exercises, further fueling upward momentum. Conversely, a failure to hold above $212.50 could reignite bearish sentiment, especially given the elevated put volume in December.

Conclusion

AMD's options activity is a masterclass in market psychology. The dominance of call options and the strategic placement of whale trades suggest a consensus that the stock is poised for a significant move. While the path isn't without risk, the alignment of technical indicators, institutional positioning, and analyst expectations makes a compelling case for a bullish setup. As the February 3, 2026, earnings date approaches, investors would be wise to monitor these strike levels and the broader options flow for further clues.