Why Declining Salmon and Egg Prices Signal Opportunities in Agro-Commodities

The recent decline in prices for salmon and eggs, driven by oversupply and supply-chain disruptions, has created a rare buying opportunity in agro-commodities. While the market fixates on near-term challenges, a closer look at supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic indicators reveals a compelling case for strategic investments in undervalued equities within aquaculture and poultry sectors. These sectors are poised to rebound as structural tailwinds—such as production efficiency gains, demand recovery, and inflationary pressures—reassert themselves.

The Salmon Market: A Perfect Storm of Oversupply, But Underlying Strength

Salmon prices have fallen sharply in 2025, with European fillets dropping 34% below their three-year average. Norwegian producers, capitalizing on expanded capacity, have captured 25% of the U.S. market, outcompeting Chilean suppliers.

. While this has pressured short-term prices, the fundamentals suggest a correction is imminent.

First, Norwegian companies like Salmon Evolution are scaling production aggressively. Their Indre Harøy facility’s Phase 2 expansion will add 10,100 MT of head-on-gutted (HOG) capacity by 2026, with plans to triple this by Phase 3. This expansion, however, is not just about volume—it reflects a shift toward operational efficiency and cost management. As Norwegian producers consolidate market share, they are likely to stabilize prices through disciplined supply management.

Second, demand is cyclical. The softening of U.S. demand earlier than usual in Q1 2025 was an anomaly, driven by seasonal overstocking. Historical patterns suggest demand will rebound toward summer, buoyed by rising consumer preference for protein-rich, sustainable seafood. Meanwhile, Asian markets, particularly Japan, remain hungry for salmon roe (ikura and sujiko), where prices remain elevated despite temporary dips.

Norwegian salmon giant Mowi’s share price has fallen 18% since January 2025, reflecting short-term sentiment. But with a 45% rise in biomass and a strategic focus on high-value exports, Mowi is positioned to capitalize on the eventual price recovery.

Eggs: A Post-Pandemic Reset Amid Supply Shocks

The egg market faces a different challenge: avian flu (HPAI) has slashed U.S. egg-laying hens by 8% year-over-year, even as prices eased in April. While the April drop of 12.7% in egg prices to $5.12/dozen marked the largest monthly decline since 1984, the long-term outlook is bullish.

The HPAI outbreak has permanently reduced egg-layer populations, and rebuilding flocks takes time. Meanwhile, annual egg prices remain 49.3% higher than 2024 levels, signaling that inflation-adjusted affordability is still strained. Once supply stabilizes—expected by late 2025—prices could rise again, especially with demand rebounding as restaurants and foodservice sectors recover post-pandemic.

The chart shows volatility but also a trend of upward pressure, excluding the April dip. Investors should view current prices as a fleeting discount ahead of a sustained recovery.

Equity Picks: Buying Undervalued Resilience

The current dip presents a chance to invest in companies with strong balance sheets and strategic advantages:

1. Norwegian Aquaculture Leaders:
2. Salmon Evolution (privately held but worth watching for future listings) and Mowi (OTCMKTS:MOWIY) benefit from cost-efficient production and access to premium markets.

4. U.S. Poultry Recovery Plays:

5. Tyson Foods (TSN) and Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC) are leveraged to rising egg and poultry prices once supply normalizes. Tyson’s diversified portfolio, including plant-based proteins, adds resilience.

7. Global Seafood Processors:

8. Companies like Marine Harvest (OTCMKTS:MHVGF) and Agrimar (ALAGRO.MX) profit from value-added salmon products (e.g., ikura), which command premium pricing despite raw-fillets volatility.

The Macro Case: Inflation, Sustainability, and Protein Demand

The broader macro backdrop reinforces the investment thesis. Inflation remains sticky in food prices, and agro-commodities are a natural hedge. Additionally, global protein demand is surging, driven by rising incomes in Asia and a shift toward sustainable, farmed seafood. Companies that can balance cost discipline with innovation—such as Salmon Evolution’s closed-containment systems—will outperform.

Final Call to Action

Declining prices for salmon and eggs are not signs of weakness but of opportunity. Investors who act now, targeting companies with structural advantages and resilient supply chains, can secure positions at discounted valuations. As supply-demand imbalances correct and demand rebounds, these equities will rise—and those who buy now will be handsomely rewarded.

The clock is ticking: act before the market recognizes the turning point.

This data underscores the lasting impact of HPAI and the slow recovery trajectory. The bottom is near—now is the time to position.