Declining CBOT Soybean Prices: Technical Deterioration and Geopolitical Trade Risks

The CBOT soybean market has entered a period of pronounced volatility, marked by technical deterioration and geopolitical headwinds that are reshaping global trade dynamics. As of September 2025, soybean futures have faced downward pressure despite intermittent bullish signals, driven by a confluence of weather-related uncertainties, speculative positioning shifts, and the lingering effects of U.S.-China trade tensions. This analysis dissects the technical and geopolitical factors fueling the decline, offering insights for investors navigating this complex landscape.

Technical Deterioration: A Bearish Signal Amid Mixed Momentum

Recent technical indicators paint a mixed but increasingly bearish picture for CBOT soybean futures. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 39.17, signaling moderate momentum without clear overbought or oversold conditions, according to the commodity-board analysis. However, moving averages (MAs) reveal a stark bearish trend: the 20-day MA is at 1028-3, reflecting a -4.34% price change, while the 50-day and 200-day MAs also indicate downward pressure, the same commodity-board analysis notes. TradingView technicals assign a "strong sell" rating to soybean futures based on MAs, underscoring the market's fragility.

The September 2025 contract closed at 993.75 U.S. cents per bushel, but recent trade data shows a 5–6 cent decline toward the end of the week, as reported in the commodity-board price analysis. This volatility is compounded by speculative positioning, as managed money players have reduced exposure, signaling caution, the commodity-board analysis observes. While the market remains sensitive to USDA reports and weather developments-particularly in the U.S. Midwest-prolonged dry spells could trigger sharp upward movements in November and January 2026 contracts, the commodity-board analysis adds. For now, however, the technical outlook leans toward a "sell" signal, with key pivot levels closely watched for potential reversals, per TradingEconomics data.

Geopolitical Trade Risks: The U.S.-China Tariff Legacy

The most profound structural risk to CBOT soybean prices stems from the U.S.-China trade war, which has left a lasting imprint on global soybean markets. China's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans-escalating to a cumulative 34% by 2025-have rendered American exports uncompetitive in the world's largest soybean importer, the Wedbush MarketMinute reports. As a result, U.S. soybean shipments to China effectively collapsed in the first half of 2025, contributing to a 5% decline in futures prices and pushing them below production costs for many farmers, the Wedbush analysis adds.

This shift has been accompanied by a dramatic reallocation of Chinese soybean imports. Brazil now accounts for 71% of China's soybean needs in 2024, while U.S. market share has plummeted to 12%, the Wedbush piece shows. The displacement of U.S. exports has exacerbated oversupply conditions, with nearly 40% of the U.S. soybean harvest already completed and Brazil's rapid planting progress further pressuring prices, according to TradingEconomics. U.S. farmers are now grappling with losses of $100–$200 per acre, alongside logistical challenges in storing unsold crops, the Wedbush analysis notes.

The USDA's emergency aid programs, while providing temporary relief, are increasingly seen as insufficient to address the structural imbalance. Meanwhile, agribusiness giants like Archer-Daniels-Midland and Deere & Company have reported earnings declines and production cuts, underscoring the sector-wide impact the Wedbush piece highlights.

Market Implications and Investor Outlook

The interplay of technical deterioration and geopolitical risks has created a fragile environment for CBOT soybean futures. While short-term optimism persists-driven by hopes of resumed Chinese imports and potential U.S. farm aid packages-the bearish fundamentals remain entrenched, as TradingEconomics data indicate. Investors must also contend with the volatility of soybean oil and meal markets, which have diverged from the broader trend: soybean oil prices surged over 5% week-on-week due to biofuel demand, while soybean meal prices dipped slightly, the commodity-board price analysis reports.

Looking ahead, the market will remain highly sensitive to USDA reports, weather developments in key growing regions, and any diplomatic progress between the U.S. and China. For now, the technical and geopolitical headwinds suggest a continuation of downward pressure, with soybean futures likely to test critical support levels in the coming months.

Conclusion

The decline in CBOT soybean prices reflects a convergence of technical bearishness and geopolitical trade risks that have fundamentally altered the market's trajectory. While speculative optimism and short-term policy interventions may offer fleeting relief, the structural challenges-ranging from U.S.-China trade tensions to oversupply dynamics-pose a significant threat to near-term price stability. Investors should closely monitor technical indicators, geopolitical developments, and supply-side factors to navigate this volatile landscape effectively.