Deckers Outdoor Soars 12.2% – What’s Igniting This Retailer’s Rebound?

Summary
• Deckers Outdoor (DECK) surged 12.2% intraday, hitting $117.75 after opening at $123.35.
• Q1 earnings of $0.93 beat estimates by 33%, with revenue up 17% to $965M.
• International sales jumped 49.7% to $463.3M, driven by China growth.
• Hoka and Ugg brands saw 19.8% and 18.9% revenue gains, respectively.

Deckers Outdoor’s stock is surging on a blockbuster Q1 report, defying macroeconomic headwinds and tariff concerns. The footwear giant’s Hoka and Ugg brands are firing on all cylinders, with international demand surging. While the stock remains 40% below its 52-week high, today’s rally signals a potential inflection point. Traders are now parsing technicals and options to position for next steps.

Surpassing Expectations: Deckers’ Q1 Earnings Ignite Bullish Sentiment
Deckers Outdoor’s 12.2% intraday surge was fueled by a resounding Q1 earnings beat. The company reported $0.93 EPS—33% above consensus—and $965M in revenue, a 17% year-over-year increase. Hoka and Ugg sales rose 19.8% and 18.9%, respectively, while international revenue surged 49.7%, driven by robust China sales. CEO Stefano Caroti’s confidence in long-term brand strength and $1.50–$1.55 EPS guidance for Q2 further stoked optimism. Despite $185M in tariff-related COGS headwinds, the results reassured investors of Deckers’ resilience.

Footwear Sector Gains Momentum as Deckers Outpaces Rivals
The broader footwear sector, led by Nike (NKE) with a 1.28% intraday gain, shows mixed momentum. While Deckers’ 12.2% rally stands out, sector-wide challenges persist. Tariff disputes and supply chain bottlenecks, highlighted by Kizik’s lawsuit against Skechers, underscore lingering risks. However, Deckers’ international growth and brand-specific outperformance position it as a standout in a fragmented sector.

Options and Technicals: Navigating Deckers’ Volatility
• 200-day MA: 147.07 (below current price) | RSI: 47.66 (neutral) | MACD: -0.54 (bearish) | Bollinger Bands: 109.90–96.92 (current price above upper band)
• Support/Resistance: 30D support at $101.71, 200D resistance at $108.09

Deckers’ technicals suggest a short-term bullish trend amid a long-term bearish backdrop. The stock is trading above its 200-day MA but faces downward pressure from a negative MACD. For traders, key levels to watch include the $118–$120 range, where options liquidity is strongest.

Top Option 1: DECK20250801C118 (Call, Strike $118, Expiry 2025-08-01)
• IV: 36.47% (moderate) | LVR: 47.86% | Delta: 0.501 | Theta: -0.471 | Gamma: 0.0627 | Turnover: $393,752
• High leverage ratio and moderate delta make this ideal for a 5% upside move (target $123.64). Payoff: $5.64 per contract.

Top Option 2: DECK20250801C119 (Call, Strike $119, Expiry 2025-08-01)
• IV: 32.65% (moderate) | LVR: 67.27% | Delta: 0.429 | Theta: -0.4099 | Gamma: 0.0690 | Turnover: $144,251
• Aggressive leverage and high gamma position this for rapid gains if the stock breaks above $120. Payoff: $4.64 per contract for a 5% move.

Action Alert: Aggressive bulls should consider DECK20250801C118 for a controlled bullish play. If $120 holds, DECK20250801C119 offers high-reward potential.

Backtest Deckers Outdoor Stock Performance
The performance of DECK after a 12% intraday surge shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains, highlighting the stock's potential for significant returns following a strong price movement. The backtest data indicates that the 3-day win rate is 54.82%, the 10-day win rate is 62.44%, and the 30-day win rate is 76.40%, suggesting that DECK tends to maintain a relatively high probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of a substantial price increase.

Deckers’ Bull Run: A Strategic Buy or Short-Lived Rally?
Deckers’ rally hinges on sustaining its Q1 momentum amid tariff headwinds and sector volatility. Technicals suggest a critical test at $120, with the 200-day MA acting as a long-term overhang. For now, the stock’s 12.2% surge and strong options liquidity signal short-term optimism. With Nike (NKE) up 1.28%, the footwear sector remains cautiously bullish. Act Now: Target $120 as a key inflection point—break above for a bullish setup or retreat to trigger defensive positioning.