Decentraland/Tether (MANAUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-10-04

• Decentraland/Tether (MANAUSDT) saw a 24-hour decline from 0.3445 to 0.3306 amid moderate volume and bearish momentum.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions earlier before entering oversold territory by close, suggesting exhausted bear pressure.
• A key support at 0.3306 held, while 0.3471 resistance failed, indicating a possible short-term bear trend.
• Volatility expanded during the 15-minute burst at 0.3534, followed by a sharp reversal and decline below key moving averages.
• Divergence between volume and price action raised caution, with low turnover during the recovery attempt.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03, Decentraland/Tether (MANAUSDT) opened at 0.3442, reached a high of 0.3534, and closed at 0.3306 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 33,919,839, with a turnover of approximately $11,303,559. The price action revealed a strong bearish sentiment and volatility spikes.

Structure & Formations

Price initially tested a key resistance at 0.3471, which failed to hold, allowing for a pullback into oversold territory. A large 15-minute bearish candle formed around 0.3534, followed by a sharp reversal and continued bearish momentum. Notable patterns included a bullish engulfing candle at 0.3499, which failed to sustain, and a bearish harami pattern near 0.3471. Support levels at 0.3306 and 0.3360 have held as temporary floors.

Moving Averages

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were decisively below price, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period moving averages are converging from above, suggesting potential support in the near term. The 200-period MA remains a critical long-term floor if the bearish momentum persists.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line during the afternoon session, confirming bearish momentum. RSI entered oversold territory (around 28) at the close, suggesting a possible bounce or consolidation phase in the short term. However, the bearish divergence in MACD and RSI indicates that any rally may be short-lived.

Bollinger Bands

Price broke out above the upper Bollinger Band at 0.3534 before retracing sharply, illustrating heightened volatility. The current price is sitting near the lower band at 0.3306, suggesting potential for a bounce but not a reversal. The width of the bands has expanded significantly, indicating increased uncertainty in the market.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 15-minute reversal at 0.3534, but failed to sustain the move above 0.3471. The final 6 hours saw a significant drop in both volume and turnover, with price action continuing to slide on thin volume. This divergence raises the risk of a continuation of the bearish trend rather than a correction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute move from 0.3445 to 0.3534, key levels at 0.3488 (38.2%) and 0.3461 (61.8%) were tested but failed. On the daily chart, the 0.3375 (38.2%) and 0.3309 (61.8%) levels have become key watchpoints. A break below 0.3306 could target the next Fibonacci level near 0.3250.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for this asset could involve entering short positions when RSI falls below 30 and price breaks below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart. Stops could be placed above a recent swing high (e.g., 0.3360–0.3375) with tight trailing stops below key support levels. This approach would align with the observed bearish divergence and oversold conditions. Given the current setup, a bearish bias is justified, but traders should remain cautious of potential rebounds from the lower Bollinger Band.