The Debate Over Elbridge Colby: A Strategic Vision for the US in the Indo-Pacific

Elbridge Colby, a prominent American foreign and defense policy expert, has sparked a lively debate with his strategic vision for the US in the Indo-Pacific region. Colby, who served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development under Trump, is the author of "The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict." His book, released in 2021, argues that the most important strategic objective of the United States is to prevent China's regional hegemony, and that the strict priority in US defense planning and resourcing should focus on making denial defense a reality in the Indo-Pacific.

Colby's framework emphasizes the importance of denial defense and anti-hegemonic coalitions in countering China's growing assertiveness and strategic ambitions. He argues that the US military is overstretched and needs to focus resources on China, as great power competition constitutes the chief challenge to America's hegemony. This shift in focus challenges the previous emphasis on counterterrorism and requires a more pragmatic approach to other autocratic regimes that lack the same existential threat.

Colby's vision for US foreign policy addresses the political and economic complexities of sustaining an anti-hegemonic coalition by emphasizing shared opposition to an aspiring hegemon's bid for predominance as the common incentive to bind the unity of the coalition. He argues that the US should serve as the 'cornerstone balancer' of the coalition, with middle powers like Australia and Japan functioning primarily as key contributors to the broader strategic goals. Additionally, Colby makes a case for relieving the political risk on coalition members' participation in any denial defense strategy by articulating 'differentiated credibility,' which involves a heightened US commitment to defending its regional alliances in the Indo-Pacific as a priority, while emphasising other less critical regions.

However, Colby's emphasis on denial defense and anti-hegemonic coalitions also presents challenges to existing US defense strategies and alliances in the region. The higher level of commitment and interoperability required from allies may strain alliances if they are unwilling or unable to meet these demands. Additionally, potential misalignments between official diplomatic and military positions on China could weaken the ability of allies to generate the level of political resolve and higher risk tolerance needed to effectively support participation in a potential anti-hegemonic coalition.

Colby's vision for US foreign policy has sparked a debate among experts and policymakers, with some praising his strategic framework for its clarity and pragmatism, while others criticize its potential to strain alliances and overlook the nuances of regional dynamics. As the US continues to grapple with the evolving complexities of China's growing assertiveness and great power competition in the Indo-Pacific, Colby's ideas will likely remain a central part of the conversation.

In conclusion, Elbridge Colby's strategic vision for the US in the Indo-Pacific, as outlined in "The Strategy of Denial," presents a compelling case for denial defense and anti-hegemonic coalitions as a means of countering China's growing influence. However, his framework also presents challenges to existing US defense strategies and alliances, which will require ongoing diplomatic efforts, regular consultations, and a willingness to adapt to changing circumstances. As the debate over Colby's vision continues, it is essential for policymakers to consider the strengths and limitations of his approach and to engage in a thoughtful and balanced discussion of the future of US foreign policy in the region.