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The Death of Cable TV: Why Disney’s ESPN+ Is the Final Nail in the Coffin

Julian CruzSaturday, May 17, 2025 5:21 am ET

53min read

The cable TV industry is in free fall, and Disney’s ESPN+ is accelerating its demise. With sports content—the last remaining pillar of cable’s relevance—now available at a fraction of the cost through direct-to-consumer platforms, investors are witnessing a structural collapse of the industry. Here’s why shorting Comcast (CMCSA) and Charter (CHTR) while buying Disney (DIS) is a no-brainer for portfolios.

The Pricing War Ignites: $10.99 vs. $122/month

Cable TV’s average monthly bill stands at $122, yet households are fleeing to streaming services that offer comparable—or better—content at a fraction of the cost. Disney’s ESPN+—priced at $10.99/month—and its new standalone ESPN streaming service ($29.99/month) are the vanguard of this revolution. Even the most budget-conscious consumers can now access live sports, including NFL games and college football, without being shackled to bloated cable bundles.

The math is brutal: A typical cable subscriber pays $1,464/year for TV, while ESPN+ costs just $132/year. This pricing disparity is driving a mass exodus.

In Q1 2025 alone, Comcast lost 427,000 TV subscribers, and Charter shed 181,000, while Disney+ added 1.4 million global subscribers. The trend is irreversible: Cable’s 2025 TV subscriber base is projected to drop to 65 million, down from 68.7 million in 2024—a decline that will only accelerate as streaming platforms undercut every remaining advantage of traditional TV.

Sports Content: The Last Bastion Crumbles

For decades, cable’s survival hinged on sports. Networks like ESPN and TNT held exclusive rights to must-watch events, forcing consumers to pay exorbitant fees for bundles they didn’t need. Today, that moat is gone.

Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Fox are dismantling the old system by launching standalone streaming services that deliver sports directly to consumers. ESPN+’s 24.1 million subscribers—despite a recent dip—generate $4.53 billion in revenue annually, thanks to ad rates that outpace cable’s outdated ad models. Meanwhile, cable firms like Comcast and Charter are trapped in a losing battle: They must maintain costly infrastructure to deliver 200+ channels, while subscribers abandon them for cheaper, on-demand alternatives.

The writing is on the wall: Sports are no longer a “moat”—they’re a landmine for traditional TV providers.

Cable’s Death Spiral vs. Disney’s Profit Surge

The financials tell the story of a dying industry. Comcast’s broadband revenue rose just 1.7% in Q1 2025, while its net income fell 12.5%. Charter’s TV revenue dropped 8.4%, and its EBITDA growth (a meager 4.8%) is outpaced by Disney’s margin explosion.

Disney’s direct-to-consumer segment—driven by streaming—saw revenue jump 8% to $6.12 billion, with operating income soaring sevenfold to $336 million.

Cable stocks are priced for obsolescence. CMCSA has lost 15% of its value year-to-date, while DIS is up 18%. The gap will widen as Disney’s content leverage—spanning Marvel, Star Wars, and ESPN’s sports library—fuels margin expansion, while cable firms drown in debt and declining subscribers.

The Investment Playbook: Short Cable, Buy Disney—Now

The structural shift is irreversible. Here’s how to profit:

Short Comcast (CMCSA) and Charter (CHTR):
Both stocks are downgraded to “sell” due to subscriber attrition and margin compression. Their 2025 losses could hit 2.4 million TV subscribers, further depressing multiples.
Buy Disney (DIS):
DIS is a “buy” at current levels. Its streaming segment is hitting stride with $5.75 in adjusted EPS (up 16% for 2025) and a pipeline of hits like Moana 2 and Daredevil: Born Again.
The Abu Dhabi theme park project—which generates revenue without capital investment—adds long-term upside.
Avoid “Cord-Cutting 2.0” Laggards:
Traditional TV networks like NBCUniversal (CMCSA) and A+E Networks (CHTR) are legacy assets. Their ad revenues are collapsing as audiences shift to TikTok and YouTube, not 30-second spots.

Why Act Now?

The inflection point is here. Cable’s Q1 2025 losses mark a tipping point: For the first time, more households are cutting the cord than adding services. Disney’s $29.99 ESPN streaming service—which targets cord-cutters seeking live sports—will further erode cable’s already fragile base.

The data is clear: Cable stocks are dead money, while Disney is the alpha engine of the new era.

Final Call: Short CMCSA and CHTR immediately. Allocate the proceeds to DIS. The streaming shift is no longer a trend—it’s a tidal wave. Those who act now will reap the rewards.

Disclosure: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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