The Death of the Altseason: Why the 2025 Cycle Never Happened

Ekinops reported 2025 consolidated revenue of 105.0 m€, a 11% decline compared to 2024 figures. This came despite a 15% sequential revenue increase in Q4 2025. The company's Software & Services segment grew by 27%, contributing to 15.8 m€ in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) by year-end.

The Access and Optical Transport segments saw declines in 2025. The Access segment dropped by 15%, largely due to reduced sales to Ekinops' largest French customer. Optical Transport revenue fell 12%, driven by North American customer reorganizations and reduced investments. However, Q4 2025 showed a 26% sequential rebound in Optical Transport.

Geographically, Ekinops reported a 8% decline in France and a 13% drop in international sales. North America saw a 14% revenue drop, while Europe recorded a 10% decline. The Rest of the World experienced a 20% drop in sales. The BEAD federal program in the U.S. is expected to drive renewed investment in the coming months.

Why Did This Happen?

Ekinops faced headwinds from its largest customers in 2025. Reduced activity in North America affected Optical Transport sales, with two major customers curtailing investments post-consolidation. In France, a 30% drop in sales to Ekinops' largest customer significantly impacted overall revenue.

The company's new acquisitions, such as Olfeo, contributed 3.7 m€ in annual revenue and 1.6 m€ in Q4. The integration of Olfeo has helped strengthen Ekinops' cybersecurity SASE offerings. This segment now accounts for 25% of total revenue, up from 18% a year earlier.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Ekinops is preparing for a strategic shift under the Bridge plan, which focuses on high-growth areas like cybersecurity and datacenter interconnect (DCI). The appointment of Lionel Chmilewsky as CEO in early 2026 aligns with the company's goal to compete with non-European vendors.

New product launches in 2025, such as the C700HC chassis and 800G transponders, are part of this strategy. The company is also optimizing its Go-to-Market approach for direct and indirect sales in new target markets.

Ekinops plans to release its 2025 annual results on March 10, 2026. This will include updated financial targets for 2026. Investors are watching for signs of stabilization and the effectiveness of the Bridge plan in driving sustainable growth.

What Implications Exist for Investors?

The decline in traditional hardware sales and the shift to recurring revenue models highlight Ekinops' strategic focus. ARR is now a key performance indicator as the company moves toward more software-based solutions. This shift is expected to provide more stable and predictable revenue streams.

The global recovery in AI and cloud-based applications may benefit Ekinops as it expands in the SASE and DCI markets. Analysts note that successful execution of the Bridge plan could improve long-term competitiveness against non-European vendors.