The Death of the 4-Year Cycle: Experts on Bitcoin's New Macro Reality

Bitcoin closed 2025 with a mix of institutional optimism and caution. Market observers noted structural strength despite volatility, with long-term holders distributing positions around the $100,000 level. On-chain data indicated a period of digestion following 2024's highs.

Institutional activity remained a key factor. Blackrock and Strategy Inc controlled nearly 1.45 million BTC by early 2026, reflecting a shift toward regulated ETFs and capital market absorption. This concentration could affect liquidity and price dynamics.

Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle is increasingly questioned. Analysts now expect a broader range of outcomes, from consolidation around $70,000 to potential rallies toward $150,000 or more.

Why Is the 4-Year Cycle Losing Relevance in 2026?

The 4-year Bitcoin cycle has long been a reference point for investors. However, new factors like ETFs and macroeconomic policy are reshaping market dynamics. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's pro-crypto stance in 2026 has added clarity to the regulatory environment.

Derivatives markets also reflect a more mature outlook. Options markets now imply a 10.3% chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year-end. This contrasts with historical volatility peaks near 80%.

What Are Analysts Watching in the Coming Months?

Bitcoin's price could oscillate in a wide band between $65,000 and $75,000 in 2026, some analysts warn. Others believe a sharp rally could break the traditional cycle if institutional demand accelerates.

The U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key variable. Derivatives markets now price in further easing, which could support risk assets like Bitcoin. If liquidity conditions remain favorable, Bitcoin could align more closely with equity indices.

Bitcoin's volatility is also being tempered by institutional flows and improved custody infrastructure. This has helped absorb supply shocks that previously caused sharp price swings.

How Is Institutional Adoption Reshaping Bitcoin's Trajectory?

Institutional adoption is now a structural factor. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have drawn over $458 million in inflows in early 2026, with Blackrock's IBIT leading the trend. This shows sustained demand from traditional investors.

Regulatory clarity is also helping. The U.S. Congress passed the CLARITY Act in 2026, defining taxation, asset classification, and issuance rules. This framework has reduced uncertainty for institutional players.

Bitcoin's role in capital markets is expanding. New developments like Babylon's trustless Bitcoin staking and on-chain lending are enabling BTC to function as a productive asset within DeFi. According to reports, this trend is gaining momentum.