DAWN Surges 23.9% on Q3 Earnings Beat and Guidance Hike—What’s Fueling the Biopharma Rally?

Summary
• Day One Biopharmaceuticals (DAWN) surges 23.9% to $9.045, hitting an intraday high of $10.0
• Q3 2025 net product revenue jumps 15% to $38.5M, with full-year guidance raised to $145–$150M
• Options chain sees explosive volume in DAWN20251121C9 (470% price change ratio)

Day One Biopharmaceuticals (DAWN) is trading at a staggering 23.9% intraday gain as of 7:39 PM, driven by a Q3 earnings beat and revised revenue guidance. The stock’s 10.0–7.905 range reflects a dramatic reversal from its 52-week low of $5.635. With $451.6M in cash and no debt, the biopharma firm’s updated FIREFLY-1 data and NCCN listing for Ogenda are sparking renewed investor optimism.

Q3 Earnings Beat and Guidance Hike Ignite DAWN’s 23.9% Rally
DAWN’s explosive 23.9% surge stems from a Q3 2025 earnings report that exceeded expectations. The company reported $38.5M in net product revenue—a 15% quarter-over-quarter increase—and raised full-year revenue guidance to $145–$150M. CEO Jeremy Bender highlighted OJEMDA’s 18% growth in total prescriptions and 20% rise in new patient starts, driven by durable clinical data from the FIREFLY-1 trial. Additionally, the NCCN listing for Ogenda in adult gliomas and the rolling NDA submission for pLGG are positioning the stock for regulatory inflection points. Despite a $0.19 EPS loss, the beat on revenue and guidance revision has reignited speculative fervor.

Options Playbook: DAWN20251121C9 and DAWN20251219C10 for Short-Term Gains
• MACD: 0.0205 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 0.0413 (bearish), Histogram: -0.0208 (bearish trend)
• RSI: 39.9 (neutral, but oversold)
• Bollinger Bands: Current price ($9.045) near upper band ($7.726), suggesting overbought conditions
• 200D MA: $7.818 (price above, bullish)

DAWN’s technicals present a mixed picture: short-term bearish momentum (K-line pattern) clashes with long-term bullish fundamentals (cash reserves, guidance hike). Key levels to watch include the 200D MA at $7.818 and the 52-week high of $16.54. The stock’s implied volatility (IV) of 146.76% for the November 21 $9 call (DAWN20251121C9) and 108.08% for the December 19 $10 call (DAWN20251219C10) suggest strong near-term volatility expectations.

Top Options Picks:
• DAWN20251121C9
- Strike: $9, Expiration: 2025-11-21, IV: 146.76%, Leverage Ratio: 7.89%, Delta: 0.565, Theta: -0.0425, Gamma: 0.138, Turnover: $68,443
- IV (high volatility) = strong price movement potential; Delta (0.565) = moderate directional sensitivity; Gamma (0.138) = high sensitivity to price changes; Turnover (high) = liquidity
- Payoff Calculation: At 5% upside (9.045 → 9.497), payoff = max(0, 9.497 - 9) = $0.497 per share. With a leverage ratio of 7.89%, this could yield ~39% returns if the stock closes above $9.00 by Nov 21.

• DAWN20251219C10
- Strike: $10, Expiration: 2025-12-19, IV: 108.08%, Leverage Ratio: 9.00%, Delta: 0.470, Theta: -0.0180, Gamma: 0.116, Turnover: $6,530
- IV (mid-to-high) = balanced risk/reward; Delta (0.470) = moderate directional exposure; Gamma (0.116) = strong sensitivity to price swings; Turnover (moderate) = sufficient liquidity
- Payoff Calculation: At 5% upside (9.045 → 9.497), payoff = max(0, 9.497 - 10) = $0.00 (strike not reached). However, if DAWN breaks $10, the 9.00% leverage ratio could amplify gains as the stock approaches the strike.

Trading Setup: Aggressive bulls should target DAWN20251121C9 for a short-term pop above $9.00, while DAWN20251219C10 offers a safer play if the stock consolidates near $9.50. Watch for a breakdown below the 200D MA ($7.818) to trigger a reversal.

Backtest Day One Stock Performance
I attempted to generate a list of DAWN trading days whose price surged at least 24 % in a single session (using the day-over-day close-to-close return as a proxy for an intraday surge, since intraday high data isn’t available through the current quick-access indicator). The scan shows that – between 2022-01-03 and 2025-11-05 – DAWN never closed more than 24 % higher than the previous day’s close, so the event list came back empty. Because the event list was empty, the event-backtest engine had no data to evaluate, which triggered the “division by zero” error you saw.Two ways forward:1. Broaden the surge definition. • For example, test a 20 % or 15 % daily jump instead of 24 %. • This will likely identify several events and allow a meaningful post-surge performance analysis.2. Use true intraday data (High price vs. prior Close). • We can request daily OHLC data, compute (High / prior Close – 1) ≥ 24 %, and back-test those dates. • This matches your “intraday surge” wording more precisely.Please let me know which approach you prefer (or if you’d like a different threshold), and I will rerun the analysis accordingly.

DAWN’s 23.9% Rally: A Short-Term Inflection or Overbought Correction?
DAWN’s 23.9% surge is fueled by Q3 earnings strength and regulatory optimism, but technical indicators (bearish K-line, overbought RSI) suggest caution. The stock’s 52-week high of $16.54 remains a distant target, while the 200D MA at $7.818 offers a critical support level. Investors should monitor the November 21 expiration of DAWN20251121C9 for directional clarity. Meanwhile, sector leader Pfizer (PFE) is up 1.13%, signaling broader biopharma resilience. Action: Buy DAWN20251121C9 for a 5% upside target, but exit if the stock fails to hold $9.00 by Nov 21.