Davinci Jeremie Bought Bitcoin at $1... but $100K BTC Doesn't Excite Him

Bitcoin (BTC) opened the year near $90,000 on January 8, 2026, as market participants remain divided on its near-term trajectory. The $100,000 level has become a focal point, with analysts debating its significance as a potential turning point. Some see it as a gateway to a broader bull market, while others view it as a temporary ceiling.

Market participants are closely tracking on-chain data and institutional activity. Bitcoin's average acquisition price for coins moved in the last six to twelve months is currently near $100,000, indicating the psychological weight of the level. A sustained break above this threshold could signal a shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish.

Many institutional players and long-term holders have maintained positions in the $80,000–$100,000 range. Some analysts suggest that recent inflows of over $1 billion into Bitcoin could signal early momentum for a Q1 rebound. However, bulls have yet to confirm a breakout above the $94,000–$96,000 range.

Why Did This Happen?

The $100,000 level is more than just a price—it's a marker of broader sentiment. It reflects the breakeven point for many mid-term investors, making it a critical line in the sand. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to consolidate in the $80,000–$100,000 range before making decisive moves.

On-chain metrics suggest that the price is currently trading below the average cost basis of many long-term holders. This dynamic implies that, without a clear reversal above $100,000, the broader trend remains bearish.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are watching for several key developments in the coming months. These include the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections, which could influence regulatory and monetary policy. The new chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, expected to take over in May, could also impact risk appetite across markets.

The potential passage of the Clarity Act, a U.S. bill aimed at providing regulatory clarity for digital assets, is another catalyst. Clearer rules could attract more institutional demand and reduce the regulatory overhang that has previously weighed on Bitcoin's performance.

Another factor is the ongoing shift in macroeconomic conditions. As liquidity improves and quantitative tightening unwinds, some analysts believe Bitcoin could benefit from a broader risk-on environment. However, this depends on how quickly inflation expectations evolve.

What's Next for Bitcoin in 2026?

Bitcoin's price is expected to remain volatile as it navigates a transition phase. The market is in a state of uncertainty, with conflicting signals emerging from different indicators. For example, stablecoin balances on platforms like Binance have grown by $1 billion, suggesting capital is ready to flow into Bitcoin if the price moves favorably.

However, the Sharpe ratio for Bitcoin has declined, indicating that recent gains have been driven more by internal market mechanics than by strong new demand. This dynamic suggests that Bitcoin is still searching for a clear direction.

Some analysts believe that Bitcoin could see a Q1 relief rally, particularly if options data and positioning metrics indicate growing bullish sentiment. Others remain cautious, noting that a broader market correction could delay the path to $100,000 or beyond.

Ultimately, the $100,000 level is a critical threshold. A sustained move above it could confirm a new bull phase, while a failure to break through may reinforce the bearish narrative. Investors are watching closely for confirmation of either scenario.