Daqo New Energy Outlook: Mixed Signals Amid Volatility and Tariff Uncertainty

Market SnapshotHeadline Takeaway: Daqo New Energy’s technical indicators point to a weak outlook, but recent price action suggests a short-term rise. Investors are advised to proceed with caution.

News Highlights

1. Trump Withdraws NASA Nominee Over Tariff Concerns – The news highlights growing industry tensions, as Trump withdrew a nominee linked to Elon Musk amid concerns over tariffs and foreign competition. This could ripple through the energy and manufacturing sectors.

2. US Export Restrictions Hit China Semiconductor Sales – Tech firms like Synopsys have stopped China operations to comply with new U.S. export rules. This could impact global supply chains, including companies tied to solar or clean energy tech.

3. McKinsey Warns of Tariff Impact on Semiconductor Chains – Analysts from McKinsey have flagged the growing uncertainty around U.S. tariffs and their potential to disrupt global chip manufacturing. Daqo, as a solar energy firm, may face indirect pressures if U.S.-China tensions persist.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst Consensus: The current analyst sentiment is mixed. Roth Capital's Philip Lee-Wei Shen recently gave a "Neutral" rating, but the firm's historical performance is poor with a 0.0% win rate. The simple average rating for DQ.N is 3.00, while the performance-weighted rating is 0.00. These metrics show a wide divergence in expectations.

Price Trend Mismatch: Despite the weak analyst sentiment, the stock has seen a 4.06% price rise in the last month. This suggests a disconnect between technical and fundamental signals and market expectations.

Key Fundamental Factors: Revenue-MV: 3.00 – This factor earned an internal diagnostic score of 3.00, indicating moderate strength in revenue-to-market value alignment. Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit: 79.15% – Scored 1.00, suggesting a weaker alignment of net profit and ownership structure. Gross Profit Margin (GPM): 3.95% – With a high internal diagnostic score of 3.00, this suggests healthy margins and operational efficiency. EV/EBIT: -8.43 – Scored 0.00, signaling poor performance in enterprise value-to-EBIT. PE: -127.08 – Scored 0.00, showing a highly inflated price-to-earnings ratio, likely due to low or negative earnings. Asset-MV: -41.71% – Scored 0.00, suggesting a poor relationship between asset value and market value. Cash-MV: 43.18% – With a solid score of 1.00, this shows a strong cash-to-market value ratio.

Money-Flow Trends

Big money is currently flowing into Daqo New Energy. The overall inflow ratio stands at 52.04%, with all major categories—Extra-large, Large, Medium, and Small—showing positive trends. The most significant inflow is from the Extra-large investors, at 53.08%, indicating strong institutional confidence. In contrast, the block inflow ratio is 52.25%, showing alignment between large and institutional flows.

Despite the strong institutional inflow, the stock's fundamental and technical indicators suggest caution. This mismatch could indicate speculative buying ahead of a potential earnings or market shift.

Key Technical Signals

Daqo New Energy's technical indicators paint a mixed to negative picture. Here’s a breakdown of key signals and their internal diagnostic scores (0-10):

WR Overbought: 6.16 – Suggesting a potential short-term reversal, though the signal is neutral in direction.

Long Lower Shadow: 3.99 – Indicates a weak bearish pattern with a historically low win rate of 55.88%.

Long Upper Shadow: 1.70 – A clear bearish signal with a negative historical average return of -0.72%.

Bullish Engulfing: 1.00 – A very weak bullish pattern with a 0.00% historical win rate, suggesting it is misleading in the current context.

Recent Chart Patterns: On November 14, 2025, a bearish combination of a Long Upper Shadow and a Bullish Engulfing emerged, contradicting the earlier WR Overbought signals from late October and early November. This volatility suggests a lack of clear direction.

Technical Summary: With 3 bearish indicators and 0 bullish ones, the technical outlook is weak. The internal diagnostic technical score is 3.21, and the advice is to avoid the stock for now due to unclear momentum and high volatility.

Conclusion

Daqo New Energy is caught in a tug-of-war between positive money flows and weak technical and fundamental signals. While institutional investors are stepping in, the company’s earnings outlook remains murky, and analyst sentiment is not aligned with price action. Given the internal diagnostic score of 3.21 in technicals and the recent bearish patterns, we recommend investors consider waiting for a clearer trend or a pull-back before taking a position.