Danny Moses' Gold Double: Assessing the 'Big Short' Trader's Macro Bet

Danny Moses, the trader whose name became synonymous with spotting the housing bubble in "The Big Short," has made a new, bold call. In an exclusive interview, he predicted that gold prices will double from here over the next few years. This isn't a distant forecast; Moses argues the shift is already underway. He pointed to 2025 as the year the pivot occurred, when gold and silver outperformed most asset classes.

The core of his thesis is a fundamental repositioning of gold's role. For years, it was treated as a passive hedge-a financial insurance policy. Moses contends that perception is outdated. He sees precious metals, especially gold, quietly shifted from hedge status to leadership assets. This move, he believes, is driven by powerful, structural forces rather than fleeting sentiment.

What sets this rally apart from past cycles is its source. While silver's surge is fueled by hard industrial demand from solar, EVs, and AI, gold's momentum is rooted in trust. Moses highlights that central banks worldwide have become the largest buyers of physical gold, using it as a hedge against policy missteps. He expects this trend to persist, creating ongoing market dislocations as official sector demand meets rising investor interest through ETFs.

Moses is clear-eyed about the path. He isn't selling a straight-line climb. "Of course, you could see a pullback, and we will no doubt have continued volatility," he cautioned. The payoff, in his view, will come from a sustained repositioning of gold from a peripheral asset to a core portfolio holding.

The Macro Foundation: Structural Drivers of the Rally

The bullish case for gold is not built on fleeting sentiment but on a confluence of powerful, structural forces. These are the macroeconomic underpinnings that validate Danny Moses' thesis of a fundamental repositioning. The first and most direct tailwind is the dramatic shift in the U.S. dollar's value. The greenback's worst annual performance since 2017, falling over 9%, has been a powerful catalyst. In currency markets, a weaker dollar directly boosts the appeal of dollar-denominated assets like gold, making them cheaper for holders of other currencies and amplifying the metal's role as a global store of value.

This dynamic is compounded by a critical, persistent floor being established by central banks. Official sector demand is projected to remain robust, averaging 585 tonnes per quarter in 2026. This isn't a speculative surge but a deliberate, long-term strategy by governments to diversify reserves and hedge against policy uncertainty. Such sustained, institutional buying acts as a powerful support, creating a baseline of demand that can absorb volatility and fuel the metal's ascent.

The result of these forces is a market that has already achieved historic highs. Gold's remarkable 2025 saw it achieve over 50 all-time highs and return more than 60%. This performance was driven by a balanced mix of geopolitical risk and the weaker dollar, factors that continue to shape the investment landscape. The bottom line is that the conditions for a sustained rally are in place. The structural shift Moses describes-gold moving from a passive hedge to a core, leadership asset-is being powered by a weakening dollar, unwavering central bank demand, and an environment of persistent uncertainty. These are not temporary headwinds but enduring drivers that set the stage for the next phase of the move.

The Price of Doubt: Analyst Forecasts and Near-Term Skepticism

Danny Moses' ambitious call for gold to double is a bold statement of conviction. Yet it sits alongside a more measured, yet still bullish, consensus from the institutional world. J.P. Morgan's Global Commodities Strategy projects a gold price of $5,000/oz by the fourth quarter of 2026. That target implies an 11% premium from current levels and represents a more measured but still powerful endorsement of the structural thesis. The bank sees the long-term trend of reserve diversification into gold as having further to run, with demand expected to remain robust.

This institutional view, however, is tempered by near-term skepticism from the trading community. Analysts like Porter Collins, a fellow contrarian featured in the same circle as Moses, note that gold prices look stretched after their explosive 2025 run. They warn of a potential pullback in early 2026 as the market digests its gains. This tension between a multi-year structural outlook and immediate technical pressure defines the current setup.

The key risk that investors must weigh is a reversal in the very forces that are fueling the rally. The primary catalyst has been a weaker US dollar, which tends to coincide with strong gold prices. A successful policy outcome that reduces global risk and uncertainty could see the dollar strengthen, directly pressuring the metal lower. As one scenario analysis notes, a successful outcome from policies set by the Trump administration would accelerate economic growth and reduce geopolitical risk, leading to higher rates and a stronger US dollar, pushing gold lower.

This is the price of doubt. It is the gap between the powerful, long-term macro narrative and the volatile reality of markets. For every bullish projection, there is a counter-argument rooted in valuation and momentum. The structural drivers-central bank demand, a weakening dollar, and persistent uncertainty-remain intact. But they must overcome the immediate friction of stretched prices and the ever-present possibility of a policy-driven de-escalation. The path forward will be defined by which force proves stronger in the coming quarters.

Catalysts and Risks: Scenarios for the Double

The path to a doubled gold price is not predetermined. It will be shaped by a series of forward-looking events that could accelerate the rally or trigger a sharp correction. The investment case hinges on monitoring a clear framework of catalysts and risks.

The primary catalyst is further U.S. dollar weakness. The greenback's worst performance for the first half of any year in over 50 years has already provided a massive tailwind. This trend is rooted in structural factors-slower U.S. growth, rising deficits, and persistent policy uncertainty-rather than temporary rate differentials. If these pressures persist, with the Fed maintaining a dovish stance, the dollar's decline could continue, directly boosting gold. The key watchpoint is whether global capital flows remain tilted away from dollar-denominated assets, a dynamic that would sustain this dollar weakness.

The critical sustainability check is on central bank buying. While demand remains elevated, with net purchases of 45 tonnes in November and a solid year-to-date total, the pace may moderate. The World Gold Council notes that central banks are still far from their reserve targets, but the rate of accumulation could slow once those targets are approached. The watch is on whether the current streak of buying from major emerging market central banks, like Poland and Brazil, continues unabated or begins to fade.

The key risk is a reversal in momentum, particularly if geopolitical risks de-escalate. Gold's explosive 2025 run was fueled by a mix of tariff uncertainty and a weaker dollar. A successful policy outcome that reduces global tensions and accelerates growth could see the dollar strengthen and risk premia compress, directly pressuring the metal. As one scenario analysis notes, a successful outcome from policies set by the Trump administration would accelerate economic growth and reduce geopolitical risk, leading to higher rates and a stronger US dollar, pushing gold lower.

The bottom line is that the structural drivers are powerful, but the market is vulnerable to a sharp correction if the momentum from dollar weakness and central bank buying falters. Investors must monitor the interplay between these forces. The thesis for a double is built on the dollar's continued decline and unwavering official sector demand. Any sign that these catalysts are losing steam would be the first warning of a potential pullback.