DAIJPY Market Overview: Volatility, Reversals, and Oversold Conditions

• DAIJPY opens at 147.51 and closes at 147.39 within 24 hours, hitting a high of 147.71 and a low of 147.04.
• A strong bearish reversal appears after a bullish breakout in early trading hours, with price consolidating below key support levels.
• Volatility spiked in the first half of the day, while volume and turnover surged during the sharp declines.
• RSI entered oversold territory near the close, suggesting potential short-term buying interest but no clear trend confirmation.
• Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band, indicating a potential pullback but no strong breakout yet.

DAIJPY opened at 147.51 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at 147.39 at 12:00 ET the next day, reaching a high of 147.71 and a low of 147.04. Total volume for the 24-hour window was approximately 206,191.58 units, with a total notional turnover of roughly 30,092,161.50 JPY. The pair exhibited strong bearish pressure in the afternoon and evening, following a bullish morning breakout.

The price structure revealed several key turning points. A large bullish candle formed early in the morning, pushing DAIJPY to 147.71, followed by a sharp decline marked by several engulfing bearish patterns and a significant bearish pinocchio near 147.04. This suggests a potential reversal from strong bullish momentum. A key support level appears around the 147.14–147.16 range, where price consolidated briefly before resuming the downward trend. Resistance remains at 147.57–147.60, where multiple failed breakouts occurred.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bearish crossover during the afternoon session, confirming the downward shift in sentiment. RSI dropped into the oversold zone (below 30) in the final hours, indicating potential short-term buying pressure. However, the MACD line has been below the signal line for most of the day, suggesting that bullish momentum is weak. Bollinger Bands show a moderate contraction in the morning followed by expansion in the afternoon, with the price closing near the lower band—suggesting a potential rebound but no clear breakout.

Volume spiked during key price moves, particularly during the sharp drop in the afternoon, aligning with the price action and confirming the bearish sentiment. Notional turnover also surged during these periods. However, in the final hours, while volume remained relatively low, turnover increased slightly, indicating a possible accumulation phase. Price and turnover remain in alignment, with no divergences observed.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the morning high of 147.71 and the afternoon low of 147.04 show the 61.8% level near 147.40 and the 38.2% level near 147.52. These levels appear to be key psychological points where buyers may step in or sellers may resist. The price’s consolidation near 147.39–147.46 suggests that a test of the 61.8% retracement is likely in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for DAIJPY involves a reversal play from oversold RSI conditions (RSI < 30) and price consolidation near the lower Bollinger Band. This could be combined with a Fibonacci retracement trigger at the 61.8% level (147.40). Entries could be placed near this level with a stop loss just below the recent low of 147.04. Targets may include the 38.2% retracement at 147.52 or the 50-period moving average. A time frame of 30–60 minutes could be used to capture short-term volatility without exposing the trade to overnight risks. The strategy would aim to capitalize on a mean reversion following the sharp bearish move.