DAIJPY Market Overview: 24-Hour Crypto Pair Analysis as of 2025-09-26

• DAIJPY traded in a tight range early but dipped sharply after 01:00 ET, closing 0.9% lower.
• Momentum weakened with RSI near oversold territory, and volume surged during the breakdown.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction before the sharp drop, indicating low volatility.
• Key support at 149.80 and resistance at 150.15 defined intraday trading boundaries.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 01:00 ET, confirming downward pressure.

Dai/Yen (DAIJPY) opened at 149.97 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of 150.27, and a low of 149.76, closing at 149.79 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. Total volume traded over the 24-hour period was 195,926.99 with a notional turnover of 29,378,909.65 JPY. Price action showed a bearish bias from early morning, with strong volume during the sharp sell-off.

Structure & Formations

Price consolidation occurred in the 150.03–150.13 range until a bearish reversal began at 01:00 ET. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the top, followed by a key breakdown below 150.00, which acted as a psychological pivot. A doji at 09:30 ET near 149.88 marked the first pause in the downward move. Key support levels identified were 149.80 and 149.76, with a resistance at 150.15.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were crossed in a bearish sequence, confirming downward momentum. On a broader scale, the 50-period daily MA is slightly above the current price, suggesting the pair may remain in a short-term downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line at 01:15 ET, signaling bearish momentum. RSI hit 29 by 04:30 ET, indicating oversold conditions, but a lack of reversal candles suggests the downtrend could continue. RSI divergence was minimal, supporting the bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a narrowing pattern from 00:00 to 01:00 ET, indicating decreasing volatility. After the breakdown, price moved outside the lower band, suggesting a continuation of the trend is likely. The width of the bands expanded again during the final 4 hours, indicating renewed volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the breakdown, especially from 01:00 to 03:00 ET. Turnover confirmed the bearish momentum, with over 10,000 JPY of turnover in a single hour. However, volume during the last 6 hours declined, suggesting reduced conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level aligned with 149.85 was tested and broken after 09:30 ET. The 149.76 level corresponds with the 78.6% retracement, acting as a strong support. Price could retest this level before a potential rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy focuses on identifying a bearish engulfing pattern with confirmation from volume and momentum. This is aligned with the 01:00 ET candle, where a large bearish candle emerged on high volume. A trailing stop-loss could have been placed slightly below the 149.80 support. If applied, the strategy would have exited around 149.76 with a 0.4% profit, or held for a potential bounce if RSI rebounded above 30. This approach appears to offer a high probability of catching short-term bearish trends in low-latency crypto pairs like DAIJPY.