D3's second well is done-the real D3E call is the Nooitgedacht helium test

Nooitgedacht testing, not drilling speed, now drives the D3E story

The second well does not settle the commercial question at D3 Energy. It simply moves the stock into the next decision node: can Nooitgedacht convert a fast appraisal campaign into credible flow and helium grades?

Drilling has mostly answered the first-order geological question. NGT245 E intersected the targeted gas-bearing fracture zone and flowed gas to surface before the second well was spudded on 30 July, about a week after drilling began on the first hole. That pace supports the case for efficient operations, but it does not by itself prove a commercial stream.

What matters now is deliverability and helium concentration. The best nearby analogue is the historical Major borehole, which tested at 95,000 standard cubic feet per day with 5.6% helium and 83.2% methane. If D3E can show something broadly comparable during production testing, the asset starts to look less like a drilling option and more like a genuine helium target with meaningful concentration and flow. If not, investors will likely stay cautious until management proves economics rather than momentum.

What the second well changed-and what it did not

The second well turns the campaign from a promising first result into a two-point test. That is meaningful, but it does not finish the job.

What improved

NGT245 E now gives D3E a confirmed surface datum at 363 metres total depth after intersecting the targeted gas-bearing fracture zone and flowing gas to surface. The rig then moved quickly enough that NGT245 D was spudded on 30 July and had already reached about 80 metres with surface casing installed. The practical upgrade is straightforward: one gas display is now being followed by a paired-well program, with each well still budgeted at roughly A$200,000. That is low-cost skin in the game and a better foundation for appraisal.

What still has not changed

The key limitation is also clear: management said further evaluation and testing will take place after intermediate casing is installed following completion of the second well. Until that happens, investors still do not have firm data on deliverability or helium content. Logging may have begun, but logging is not a substitute for production performance.

The practical read-through

• Better: operational credibility, a faster learning rate, and a less single-point campaign.
• Not yet better: quantified stream size, helium concentration, or spacing logic.

In other words, the second well improved the setup, but the commercial decision still waits on testing.

Why Nooitgedacht can still matter faster than a typical junior gas story

The real question is not whether there is another gas show. It is whether this program can move through the valuation pipeline faster than the usual junior-gas delay loop.

Helium concentration can accelerate the option value case

Typical junior gas stories can stall in resource-definition mode. Helium can shorten that path somewhat because even a small number of solid concentration readings can make the asset interesting before a full development plan is in place. In D3E's case, the broader Free State province has verified helium concentrations up to 8% helium on ER386, while company materials describe world class helium concentrations as high as 9%. If post-casing testing confirms elevated helium at Nooitgedacht, investors can start to treat the asset as a helium option rather than a generic gas exploration bet.

The resource base is now large enough to matter

The scale of the position has also increased. D3E's combined 2C helium resource rose to 35.6 BCF, and combined 2U prospective helium resources increased to 52.5 BCF. That gives the market a larger scaffold to model. The important caveat is that resource growth is not the same as project status: contingent and prospective volumes still need testing, production rights, and development economics to become bankable.

Local demand and nearby infrastructure can help the monetization path

Nooitgedacht sits about 43 kilometres north of the Bloemskraal area, where D3E has already identified reserves tied to a Production Right application. That proximity matters because it is easier for investors to model monetization when new volume sits on the same structural corridor and close to an existing regulatory nucleus. Add South Africa's tight gas market to the mix, and the asset has a two-way demand case: gas to address local supply pressure and helium to provide the higher-value upside.

What bears will still say

Bears have a fair point: resource growth and fast drilling do not equal immediate cash flow. They will note that further evaluation and testing will take place after intermediate casing is installed, meaning the stock is still being driven by potential rather than verified production data. That is why the next phase matters so much. If testing delivers both adequate flow and usable helium grades, the story can rerate. If not, the market will treat Nooitgedacht as another delayed gas setup.

What would confirm the thesis-and what would weaken it

The setup is simple: D3E has time, cheap drilling, and one remaining test to prove.

What confirms the thesis

• Post-casing testing shows deliverability that is at least broadly comparable to the historical Major borehole benchmark of 95,000 standard cubic feet per day.
• Helium content returns near or above the 5.6% measured at Major, or better against the province's up to 8% backdrop.
• Testing moves the project from a geochemical show and gas display to a flow-based helium case investors can underwrite.

Project milestones to watch

• Completion of the second well and installation of intermediate casing.
• Real production testing, not just logging, to assess deliverability.
• Any progress on production-rights pathways that could link Nooitgedacht more closely to existing development planning.

What weakens or delays the case

• Weak flow or materially lower helium versus the Major benchmark.
• Further delays in casing, testing, or permitting.
• Results that improve geological understanding but do not improve the monetization timeline.

Constructive until proved wrong: the balance sheet and drilling economics look manageable, and the only missing piece is the data that turns a fast drill program into a bankable helium project.