CVR Energy Outlook: Technical Weakness Looms Over Mixed Fundamental Signals

Market Snapshot

CVR Energy (CVI.N) has fallen roughly 12.78% recently, and technical indicators suggest weak momentum with more bearish signals than bullish. Analysts remain divided, but the stock's fundamentals show a mixed picture with some encouraging metrics like revenue and net profit.

News Highlights

Global energy news continues to shape market sentiment. Here are a few recent items to consider:

• Colombia’s energy industry group predicts an 8% jump in 2025 E&P investment to $4.68 billion, signaling increased activity in the energy sector. This could provide indirect tailwinds for companies like CVR Energy.
• OPEC+ is considering a July oil output increase larger than the 411,000 bpd hike from recent months. If implemented, this could weigh on oil prices, which may negatively affect CVR Energy’s performance.
  
• President Tinubu of Nigeria introduced a cost-reduction executive order in the oil and gas sector, aiming to attract investment and boost domestic production. Policies like these could reshape the global oil landscape.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst ratings for CVR Energy remain sharply bearish, with a simple average rating of 1.00 and a performance-weighted rating of 0.48. This shows a high degree of pessimism among analysts, and it aligns with the recent price trend of a 12.78% drop.

The two most recent analyst ratings both fall under the “Strong Sell” category. While the analysts differ in their historical performance, Scotiabank has a weaker historical win rate (25.0%) with four past predictions, while Goldman Sachs has a better 50.0% win rate, albeit with fewer past forecasts.

Here are key fundamental factors with their values and internal diagnostic scores (0-10):

• Net income / Revenue: 65.47% (internal diagnostic score: 8.03)
• Revenue / Market Value: 1.52 (internal diagnostic score: 7.54)
• Profit / Market Value: 1.02 (internal diagnostic score: 6.68)
• Net profit / Total profit: 101.48% (internal diagnostic score: 7.62)

• Current liabilities / Total liabilities: 25.58% (internal diagnostic score: 7.74)
• Long-term debt / Working capital: 3.04% (internal diagnostic score: 6.07)
• Price-to-Book and Return on Equity (PB-ROE): -12.51% (internal diagnostic score: 4.00)
• Asset / Market Value: -51.88% (internal diagnostic score: 6.46)
• Cash flow / Upstream Production (Cash-UP): -70.14% (internal diagnostic score: 5.02)
• Cash / Market Value: 17.03% (internal diagnostic score: 7.33)

While some metrics like net income/revenue and cash/market value are strong, others like PB-ROE are troubling. The overall internal fundamental score for the company is 7.31 (out of 10), indicating a cautiously positive but mixed outlook.

Money-Flow Trends

CVR Energy has seen negative money-flow trends across all categories, from small to extra-large investors. The overall inflow ratio is 48.47%, with large and extra-large investors showing divergent trends (positive for large, negative for extra-large). This mixed activity suggests uncertainty among big-money investors.

Meanwhile, retail investors are also cautious: the small-inflow ratio stands at 48.93%, also in a negative trend. This further reinforces the idea that both large and small investors are not currently bullish on CVI.N.

The stock's fund-flow score is 7.83 (a "good" rating), indicating that despite the overall bearish flow, there are pockets of activity that could be worth monitoring.

Key Technical Signals

CVR Energy's technical outlook is weak, with internal diagnostic scores (0-10) showing bearish dominance:

• Williams %R Oversold: Score 1.41 (internal diagnostic score)
• Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold: Score 1.00 (internal diagnostic score)

These two indicators have been consistently active over the past five days, as seen in the dates from 2025-12-15 to 2025-12-19. This suggests a recent trend of over-sold conditions that haven’t led to meaningful price recovery, which is a red flag.

Key technical insights:

• Technical indicators are currently bearish, with 2 negative signals and no bullish ones.
• The overall trend is weak, and the internal diagnostic score for the technical outlook is a low 1.21 out of 10.
• Given the dominance of bearish indicators, the stock is not recommended for entry at the moment.

Conclusion

CVR Energy faces a challenging short-term outlook: technically weak, fundamentally mixed, and with a bearish consensus from analysts. The recent price drop of 12.78% aligns with the bearish technical signals and analyst expectations. While some fundamentals like net income/revenue are strong, key indicators like RSI and Williams %R remain in oversold territory without a rebound.

Actionable takeaway:Investors should consider avoiding CVR Energy for now and watch for a potential pullback or earnings catalyst before reassessing the stock.