CVR (CVI) Soars 5.3%: Is Further Upside Left in the Stock?

CVR Energy (CVI) shares soared 5.3% in the last trading session to close at $33.82. The move was backed by solid volume with far more shares changing hands than in a normal session. This compares to the stock's 48.8% gain over the past four weeks.

CVR Energy’s stock jumped yesterday after rising tensions between Iran and the Strait of Hormuz sent WTI crude oil futures toward $98–$101 per barrel. Higher oil prices have raised expectations for refining profits, drawing investors to companies like CVR that benefit when refining margins expand and Middle Eastern supply is constrained. The surge comes amid a broader oil-market shock, with prices up roughly 40–50% over the past month. This kind of move is a classic “refinery play,” where the potential gains from limited supply outweigh efforts like releasing emergency reserves or rerouting shipments. Additional pressure came from Trump’s ultimatum on the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s warning that it could target regional energy infrastructure, fueling risk-on sentiment in the sector.

This diversified holding company is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.21 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +63.8%. Revenues are expected to be $1.71 billion, up 4.1% from the year-ago quarter.

While earnings and revenue growth expectations are important in evaluating the potential strength in a stock, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.

For CVR, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 950% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. And a negative trend in earnings estimate revisions doesn't usually translate into price appreciation. So, make sure to keep an eye on CVI going forward to see if this recent jump can turn into more strength down the road.

The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>

CVR is part of the Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry. Phillips 66 (PSX), another stock in the same industry, closed the last trading session 1.6% lower at $175.47. PSX has returned 14.8% in the past month.

For Phillips 66, the consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming report has changed +8.7% over the past month to $2.07. This represents a change of +330% from what the company reported a year ago. Phillips 66 currently has a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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