Curve Market Overview (CRVUSD): August 31, 2025

• Curve (CRVUSD) opened at 0.7696, with a 24-hour low of 0.7696 and high of 0.7885.
• Price trended upward from early afternoon into early morning, consolidating at 0.7855 near session end.
• Low volume throughout most of the day, with spikes in early and late trading hours.
• RSI near neutral, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions despite upward bias.
• Bollinger Bands showed a period of slight expansion in the early part of the session.

Curve’s (CRVUSD) 24-hour session ended at 12:00 ET with a price of 0.7855, up from the open at 0.7696. The pair reached a high of 0.7885 and a low of 0.7696, with a total volume of 1,660.0 units and a notional turnover of 1,310.0 USD. Price action showed a slow upward drift, with a strong close near the high.

Structure & Formations

The session opened with a doji at 0.7696, followed by a bullish engulfing pattern at 16:15 ET, which signaled a potential reversal from consolidation. Price then formed a small bearish flag pattern between 18:15 ET and 00:15 ET, with consolidation at 0.7746 before breaking out again in the early morning. A final bullish pattern at 09:30 ET confirmed the session’s upward bias, closing the day at 0.7855.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs were both trending upward, with the price running slightly above the 20SMA in the final hour. This suggests a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart (calculated from 15-minute data), the 50-period and 100-period SMAs were within 0.5% of each other, indicating a sideways trend in the broader context.

Momentum and Volatility

MACD lines remained in the positive territory for much of the session, with a final crossover at 09:30 ET confirming the bullish momentum. RSI remained in the 50-60 range for most of the session, indicating a lack of overbought conditions and a neutral to slightly bullish bias. Bollinger Bands expanded in the morning session but narrowed in the mid-day, indicating a period of consolidation followed by renewed volatility in the final hours.

Volume and Turnover

Trading volume remained muted until 18:15 ET, with a sharp spike in early morning trading (05:00–09:45 ET) driving the final push to 0.7855. Notional turnover matched this trend, with the largest trades concentrated in two key windows: 16:15–17:45 ET and 05:00–09:45 ET. No clear divergence was observed between volume and price movement.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 16:15–00:15 ET swing low of 0.7746 and high of 0.7885, the 61.8% level came in at approximately 0.7833, which acted as a minor support level. The price then retraced beyond 61.8% and closed near 0.7855, indicating strong buying pressure in the latter half of the session.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed price behavior and retracement levels, a backtest strategy was designed where a long position is entered if the daily close is ≤ 0.7855 USD, with the position held for exactly 24 hours and closed at the next-day close. This aligns with the bullish engulfing and bullish breakout patterns observed near the 0.7855 level. The low volume and lack of overbought RSI readings further justify the 1-day holding period as a way to capture momentum without exposing the position to excessive volatility. No stop-loss or take-profit rules were used, relying instead on the time-based exit to limit risk.

Curve appears to be building momentum with strong consolidation and a final bullish breakout. The market could continue to push higher in the next 24 hours, but investors should monitor volume and any potential overbought RSI readings for early signs of exhaustion.