Is Curve DAO Token (CRV) Poised for a Major Bullish Reversal? A Technical Harmonic Pattern Analysis

The Curve DAO Token (CRV) has long been a focal point for DeFi traders, but its recent price action in August 2025 has sparked renewed interest in its potential for a bullish reversal. Technical analysis reveals a complex interplay of harmonic patterns and market timing signals that could position CRV for a significant upward move—if key resistance levels hold.

Harmonic Patterns: A Bearish ABCD with Bullish Implications

CRV is currently forming a bearish ABCD harmonic pattern on its daily chart, a structure that, while named "bearish," often precedes a strong bullish CD leg before testing a potential reversal zone (PRZ) [1]. The pattern began at point A ($0.4918), retraced to point B ($0.7481), and is now forming the CD leg toward $0.7838. A critical test lies ahead: a breakout above the 50-day moving average at $0.9062 would validate the bullish projection, potentially propelling CRV toward the 1.62 Fibonacci PRZ near $1.411—a 80% upside from current levels [1][3]. This scenario hinges on buyers defending the 100-day moving average support at $0.7578; a breakdown below this level would invalidate the pattern and expose CRV to further bearish pressure [1].

Fibonacci and Rectangle Formation: A Dual Framework for Market Timing

CRV’s price is also confined within a rectangle formation, bounded by support at $0.83 and resistance at $1.01 [2]. This consolidation suggests a period of indecision, but a decisive breakout could signal a new directional move. The 50-day SMA at $0.901346 acts as a pivotal threshold: a sustained close above this level would reinforce the bullish case [2]. Meanwhile, Fibonacci retracement levels and harmonic ratios (e.g., 61.8%, 1.618%) provide a framework for identifying high-probability entry points. For instance, the Gartley pattern—a bullish reversal structure—requires precise retracement and extension levels to confirm validity [2]. If CRV’s price action aligns with these ratios, traders could target the $1.411 PRZ with confidence.

Historical backtesting of CRV’s rectangle pattern breakouts since 2022 reveals mixed but instructive outcomes. Across 611 confirmed breakout events, the median 30-day excess return was approximately +5.8%, with a win rate hovering near 43-50% [6]. While these figures suggest only a slight directional edge, they underscore that breakouts are not guaranteed successes. Performance dispersion was high, and risk-adjusted returns could improve with additional confirmation signals—such as a volume surge or alignment with higher-timeframe trends [6]. This historical context reinforces the importance of treating the current rectangle breakout as a probabilistic setup rather than a certainty.

Momentum Indicators: Neutral Territory with Divergence

While the harmonic setup is compelling, momentum indicators offer mixed signals. The RSI stands at 40.54, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD shows divergence, suggesting weakening buying pressure [4]. This divergence implies that while the price may test key levels, sustained upward momentum will require a catalyst—such as a bullish surprise in DeFi adoption or a broader market rally.

Risks and Alternatives: When Patterns Fail

No technical analysis is foolproof. A breakdown below the 100-day moving average at $0.7578 would invalidate the ABCD pattern and likely trigger a retest of the $0.75–$0.63 support zone [5]. Traders should also monitor the rectangle’s lower boundary ($0.83) for signs of capitulation. If CRV fails to break out of this range, the token could remain range-bound for weeks, limiting upside potential.

Conclusion: A Calculated Bet on CRV’s Reversal

For investors willing to take a calculated risk, CRV’s harmonic pattern and Fibonacci projections present a compelling case for a bullish reversal. The key is to wait for confirmation: a breakout above $0.9062 and a sustained close above the 50-day SMA would justify entering long positions with a target of $1.411. However, prudence is essential—stop-loss orders below $0.7578 and $0.83 are critical to managing downside risk.

As the DeFi sector continues to evolve, CRV’s technical setup offers a unique opportunity for those attuned to harmonic patterns and market timing. Whether this becomes a major reversal or a false breakout, the coming weeks will provide clarity on CRV’s trajectory.

Source:
[1] Why Curve (CRV) Could Skyrocket in 2025 [https://investx.fr/en/crypto-news/why-curve-crv-could-skyrocket-in-2025/]
[2] Curve DAO Token (CRV) - Technical Analysis [https://www.investtech.com/main/market.php?CompanyID=99401965]
[3] Could Curve DAO Token (CRV) Rebound? Important ... [https://intellectia.ai/news/crypto/curve-dao-token-crv-to-bounce-back-key-harmonic-pattern-hints-potential-upside-move]
[4] Latest Curve DAO Token (CRV) Price Analysis [https://coinmarketcap.com/cmc-ai/curve-dao-token/price-analysis/]
[5] Curve DAO Token Forecast 2025: Can CRV Bounce Back? [https://www.tronweekly.com/curve-dao-token-forecast-2025-can-crv-bounce/]
[6] Backtest results for CRV rectangle pattern (2022–2025)